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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
000
FXUS62 KFFC 150633
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
133 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1008 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018/ 

UPDATE...
Widespread persistent rainfall continues this evening 
amid continued abundant southerly flow. As the parent upper low 
continues to lift through the Mid Mississippi Valley, a surface 
low formed across northeast Alabama and will continue to lift 
northward through the overnight hours. Rainfall rates have not 
been overly heavy, but with continued steady rainfall and embedded
higher rainfall rates, the Flash Flood Watch will continue 
through Thursday morning given saturated soils. The heaviest 
additional rainfall totals continue to be expected across eastern 
portions of the area through Thursday morning where 1-2" totals 
are anticipated with locally higher amounts. Rain will taper from 
west to east through the morning hours bringing a gradual end to 
the flooding threat. 

RW

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

The short term period begins with a closed upper level low to our 
west and ample moisture overspreading the area at the surface, 
resulting in scattered showers across much of the area. As the plume 
of moisture off the gulf continues to push into our area through the 
rest of the day, more widespread rainfall will overtake the area 
this afternoon and evening. The heaviest of the rainfall will occur 
this evening and potentially into the overnight hours. A Flash Flood 
Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning with 1 to 3 inches 
expected in the watch area with the highest amounts generally along 
and south of the I-85 corridor, with locally higher amounts 
possible. Soils are already saturated due to the 2 to 4+ inches that 
have fallen since the beginning of the week in portions of north and 
central Georgia. As such, localized flash flooding and additional 
river flooding issues could be possible with these additional 
rainfall amounts. Overall, with very minimal instability present, 
severe storms are not anticipated, leaving heavy rain and flooding 
the primary threats.

Temperatures on Thursday will be fairly chilly with many areas only 
making it into the 40s in north GA and upper 40s lower 50s in 
central GA. As the precip pushes out and the upper level low starts 
to lift north, the upper level flow shifts more northwesterly and 
cold air rushes in dropping temperatures rapidly overnight. Low 
temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will be in the 20s 
and 30s across the entire area. Interested parties should continue 
to monitor the forecast for any Freeze Watches/Warnings that may be 
issued with subsequent forecast packages. Patchy frost will also be 
possible across a good portion of the area. 

These cold temperatures mixed with the possibility of lingering wrap 
around moisture across far northern portions of the area will result 
in the possibility of mixed precip in the northeast mountains with 
little to no accumulation expected. Current thinking is more of a 
slight chance/chance of brief rain or snow showers in the late 
evening to just overnight in the higher elevations. The limiting 
factor in this setup continues to be available moisture to produce 
precipitation. The rest of the area should remain dry. 

Reaves

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Zonal or nearly zonal upper flow pattern persists through the 
majority of the extended forecast period pointing to a dry and 
seasonally mild Long-Term Forecast this weekend through the middle 
of next week. Weak short wave approaches early in the week, however 
little available moisture and weak and basically "channeled" nature 
of the vorticity do not appear conducive to generating anything but 
an increase in mid/high cloudiness.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
CIGs will mostly be IFR as RA continues to move across the area.
As the RA tapers off from west to east between 12-18Z across the 
TAF sites, there will be slow improvement to MVFR by 21Z with 
drier air bringing VFR around 00Z. Winds remain from the E/NE 
12-18 kts but will diminish between 10-12Z to 5-10kts. Winds will 
shift to the NW over ATL/CSG/MCN by 15Z and AHN by 18Z, with wind
speeds increasing with the wind shift to near 10kts again.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  31  56  36 /  50   5   0   0 
Atlanta         42  32  52  38 /  30   0   0   0 
Blairsville     42  26  53  32 /  50  20   0   5 
Cartersville    42  29  52  34 /  40   5   0   5 
Columbus        47  33  56  37 /  20   0   0   0 
Gainesville     42  31  54  36 /  40   5   0   0 
Macon           50  32  56  35 /  30   0   0   0 
Rome            42  29  54  33 /  40   5   0   5 
Peachtree City  44  31  54  35 /  30   0   0   0 
Vidalia         53  36  56  38 /  40   5   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for the following 
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Fannin...
Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...White...
Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...Atwell