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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 141436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Old frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across north
central GA this morning. Not much expected in the way of cloud
cover or pops across much of the area. South of the boundary will
have the best chances for iso/sct shra/tsra this afternoon. Temps
and dews look on track and no major changes were needed to the
forecast for the afternoon. 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
The center of the upper low over the VA/MD/PA area will drift 
slowly to the northeast during the short term. High pressure 
will gradually build in from the west during the period. PW 
values remain low today and CAPE values continue at a minimum for 
parts of north and east GA. However...some deeper moisture and 
instability begin to return along the western border...and will 
continue for the the area generally from Columbus to Macon. Low pops 
have been expanded to the northwest and across the central sections. 
Expect a diurnal influence so thunderstorms should dissipate 
overnight. For Wednesday...most of central GA and the northeast 
mountains seem the most favorable areas for convection. Forecast 
instability remains limited over parts of the north. Have stayed 
close to guidance temperatures.


LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The long term period begins with a slightly drier airmass over 
the state but that will be short lived as moisture begins to 
increase again Wednesday night/Thursday morning. As the moisture 
returns a weak surface Bermuda like ridge also builds in across 
the northern gulf and southeastern states. This will push the next
main frontal system moving east out of the MS river valley 
northward of the area also keeping the deepest moisture and 
instability north of our CWA through the end of the work week. By 
Friday afternoon/evening...whats left of the frontal boundary 
will slowly move south into the state as the Bermuda ridge also 
weakens. This will allow a developing shortwave to push SE out of 
the Mid MS river valley and across AL/GA/SC for the weekend. This 
wave will bring increased instability and deep layer moisture back
in across the region mainly Saturday through Monday. Bumped pops 
up into the likely category for the same time frame and would not 
be surprised to see the pops continue to go up as we get closer 
to the weekend.

Temperatures through the extended will stay near average with 
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and 
low to mid 70s.


12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Daytime cumulus field 
mainly few/sct050-060. Thunderstorm chances too low to mention at
taf sites...except for including a VCSH at KCSG for the afternoon. 
Winds NW at 6 to 8kts after 14z.  

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.



Athens          91  69  91  71 /   5   5  10  10 
Atlanta         91  73  91  73 /  10  10  10  10 
Blairsville     84  63  85  65 /   5  10  20  10 
Cartersville    90  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10 
Columbus        93  74  93  73 /  40  30  20  10 
Gainesville     88  69  89  71 /   5   5  10  10 
Macon           93  71  92  73 /  20  20  20  10 
Rome            91  69  92  71 /  10  10  10   5 
Peachtree City  91  70  91  71 /  20  20  20  10 
Vidalia         93  73  92  73 /  30  30  30  20 




SHORT TERM...NListemaa