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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
431 
FXUS62 KFFC 190028
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
720 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Current radar loop shows showers across central GA moving Northward 
as cold front that swept through the area yesterday...makes its 
way back as a warm front today. The front appears to be just south of 
the line of showers and with limited moisture not expecting much in 
the way of precip amounts. Instability is very weak with this 
system but there is some minimal shear associated with it. All in 
all we should see only showers and some gusty winds with not severe 
weather expected. A high pressure ridge centered along the mid 
atlantic coast is expected to push east off shore tonight which will 
help to set up a sudo wedge down the eastern seaboard keeping GA in 
easterly flow through the short term. This wedge will keep light 
showers and drizzle across the CWA through Tues. QFP amounts remain 
very light. Temps will also remain well above seasonal norms with 
highs mainly in the 70s with some 60s in the NE GA mountains...and 
lows in the 50s and 60s.

01

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...


No major changes to the forecast with much of the long term 
dominated  by an amplified trough across the Northern Rockies to 
ridging across the SE.  This will result in predominant southerly 
flow and much of the precipitation activity to our north and west. 
Scattered showers possible through the long term, however the best 
chance of widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms looks to be 
Wednesday night into Thursday and again Saturday into Sunday as a 
front tries to drop south. With moist southerly flow, have seen an 
uptick in MUCAPE values, especially the latter half of the week. So, 
did keep the potential for thunder during that time.  However, large 
scale severe events do not look probable within the next 3 to 7 
days. Temperatures will be above climo through the period. 

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018/ 

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

No real changes to the long-term forecast trends as there remains no
real changes to the medium-range model trends through the next 7
days. Flat upper-level pattern does amplify a bit through the
upcoming work week, but the forecast area remains under the
transition zone between the ridge over the southwest Atlantic/eastern
Gulf of Mexico and the persistent trough over the western U.S. Best 
dynamics and moisture remain north and west of the state, but passing
short waves transiting through the flow do manage to push occasional
frontal boundaries into the region. Timing differences remain between
the various models, but all point to increased chances for
precipitation mid-week and again next weekend. Sufficient instability
for a mention of thunder with the Wednesday/Thursday system and
probably again with the weekend system. With a serious lack of 
strong dynamics, the potential for isolated severe weather looks 
small at best. 

Temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals, at times 
possibly flirting with record warmth. 

20

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-18

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      75 1939     26 1903     57 1981      8 1958    
                1911                                        
   KATL      75 1951     28 1979     63 1891      8 1900    
                1891                                        
   KCSG      84 1927     32 1979     62 1981     12 1958    
   KMCN      80 1956     32 1979     61 1981     11 1900    
                1951                                        

Records for 02-19

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     29 2015     54 2014     14 1958    
                                        1986                
                                        1961                
   KATL      78 1891     28 2015     59 2014     13 1958    
   KCSG      80 2011     35 2015     58 1949     17 1958    
   KMCN      82 1956     34 2015     59 1986     17 1958    
                                        1981                

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015    
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015    
                                        1994        1934    
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015    
                                        1917                
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015    
                1986                                        

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885    
                1925                                        
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896    
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958    
                                        1971                
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958    

Records for 02-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963    
                            1963                            
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963    
                1949                                        
                1917                                        
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963    
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963    

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939    
                1980                                        
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939    
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963    
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963    
                1909                                        

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989    
                                                    1967    
                                                    1947    
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989    
                                                    1947    
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989    
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901    
                1930                                        

AVIATION...
00Z Update... Showers along a weak front were slowly moving north 
this evening. Ceilings should be lowering to IFR by 06z with only a 
slow improvement ater 15z Monday. A few showers or drizzle may 
affect the taf sites overnight. Winds will remain on the east side 
less than 10kts. Some IFR visibility possible due to fog overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Confidence is medium to high on all 
elements. 

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  67  56  75 /  30  20  20  20 
Atlanta         55  71  58  75 /  30  10  10  20 
Blairsville     48  61  53  67 /  40  30  20  20 
Cartersville    54  69  57  75 /  50  10  10  20 
Columbus        60  78  60  81 /  10   5   5  20 
Gainesville     50  62  55  70 /  40  30  20  20 
Macon           58  77  60  80 /  10   5  10  20 
Rome            55  70  57  76 /  50  10  10  20 
Peachtree City  56  74  58  77 /  20  10  10  20 
Vidalia         59  79  61  81 /  10   5   5  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...041 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...41