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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
811 
FXUS62 KFFC 201932
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
With sfc ridge of high pressure pushing quickly off the Carolina 
coast and an amplifying upper trough off the southeast TX coast, the 
low level fetch is swinging out of the SE to SW. As a result, an 
area of enhanced low level moisture is progged to advect northward 
overnight tonight, therefore most will wake up tomorrow morning to 
likely have a mostly cloudy stratocu deck in place. Have also 
included some slight pops for light drizzle/rain mention as there 
should be at least some isentropic forcing and possible mid/upper 
wave influence. Otherwise have held onto some slight to low end 
chance pops for light rain mainly to parts of central GA late 
tomorrow into the overnight given continued possible influence of 
any weak perturbation east of the aforementioned southern trough.

Temps stay above the freezing mark tonight given the southerly warm 
advection and cloud insolation. Expect mainly warmer afternoon temps 
Tuesday for most of central GA (generally in the 60s), though 
possibly cooler values in the 50s, especially NE GA where there 
could be a weak hybrid CAD wedge holding on with any in-situ 
diabatic enhancement from morning clouds/drizzle.

Baker


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes to the forecast were needed at this time. An old 
frontal boundary will remain situated across central Florida for 
much of the period. The next cold front is expected for the latter 
half of the weekend. 

Quiet weather will be the rule for the extended period. An old 
frontal boundary situated across central FL will be the main weather 
maker for the region. Several waves of low pressure/upper 
disturbances are progged to move along this old front, but as of 
now, both the ECMWF and GFS are keeping any widespread rainfall well 
to the south of the CWFA. The models do keep coming into better 
agreement, and overall, only a few tweaks were made to the pops for 
the Wednesday night through Thursday night time period. Still, pops 
are at most around 30%.

A dry cold front is expected for the late weekend or early next 
week. Seasonal to slightly below temps are expected through the 
period. 

NListemaa


&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... Initial VFR conditions with just some 
cirrus skirting across the sites this afternoon, though expecting 
a deck of MVFR to possible IFR cigs pushing in from the southeast 
after about 04z this evening for the southern sites, then 06-07z 
for northern sites. Have BKN 1000 ft for now as lowest cigs for 
north and slightly lower south, but could warrant lower if future 
updates see fit with any higher confidence. Also could have some 
areas of drizzle or light rain by tomorrow morning, but chance too
low to include mention for the moment. Winds mainly ESE 3-6 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to Medium on height of morning cigs and light precip chance.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          39  57  44  62 /  20  20  20   0 
Atlanta         44  59  45  60 /  20  20  20   0 
Blairsville     36  56  38  56 /  20  20  10   0 
Cartersville    38  58  41  57 /  10  20  10   0 
Columbus        47  65  49  65 /  10  20  20   5 
Gainesville     39  55  44  60 /  20  20  20   0 
Macon           45  65  47  65 /  10  20  20   5 
Rome            37  60  40  57 /  10  10  10   0 
Peachtree City  38  61  44  61 /  20  20  20   0 
Vidalia         47  68  52  67 /   5  40  40  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Baker