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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 210550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 924 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018/ 

No changes needed this evening to the forecast. Most of the
convection has died down. Some isolated activity may persist in
the far NW and far SE. Made some tweaks to the hourly temps/dews
and winds. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 737 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Ridging aloft will hold through the night and help to suppress 
thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. Isolated storms are 
possible however...mainly northwest and far east central. The water 
vapor curve shows tropical moisture starting to increase into GA 
this afternoon...but only in the form of mid and high clouds so far. 
Moisture will continue to increase through the short term. The ridge 
aloft gets suppressed overnight as an upper low drops southeast into 
the mid MS Valley. This will put us in a west to southwest flow for 
Thursday and Thursday night. Weak impulses moving around the upper 
low will help increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms for 
tomorrow and tomorrow have continued with highest pops 
north and west for those time periods. Afternoon temperatures will 
not be quite as hot on Thursday due to increased clouds and showers.


LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The beginning of the extended forecast period will bring elevated 
rain and thunderstorm chances. On Friday, the upper low over the 
Ohio Valley traverses eastward and the trough axis pushes into the 
Southeast, providing likely rain chances, especially across north 
Georgia. Depending on the degree of destabilization Friday 
afternoon, strong thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible 
given increased mid/upper level winds. PWs will remain in the 1.5 - 
2" range, bringing the chance for locally heavy rainfall as well.

By Saturday, the upper pattern begins to transition into a zonal 
flow, though lingering surface moisture and weak perturbations aloft 
will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the picture. Upper 
ridging begins to build back in by Sunday into early next week, 
though diurnal convection can still be expected each day through the 
end of the extended.

Temperatures will remain hot through the weekend and the coming 
week. Highs may be kept down a few degrees across north Georgia 
Friday and Saturday with increased cloud cover and convection but 
will rebound by Sunday back into the 90s. Dewpoints in the 70s will 
keep afternoon heat indices well into the 90s in north Georgia with 
low 100s the rule in central Georgia. While these heat index values 
are just below Heat Advisory criteria, heat precautions still need 
to be exercised during the heat of the day.



06Z Update...
SCT-BKN mid level clouds above 10kft will continue thru the
overnight before giving way to lower end VFR clouds later this
morning and afternoon between 3-5kft. Better chance for convection
will exist today and a PROB30 covers this potential for now. Winds
remain on the west side between 5-10kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements.



Athens          91  71  88  71 /  60  40  60  40 
Atlanta         88  72  87  72 /  60  50  60  40 
Blairsville     81  65  82  65 /  70  60  60  60 
Cartersville    87  70  88  70 /  70  50  60  50 
Columbus        92  74  91  74 /  40  30  40  30 
Gainesville     87  71  85  70 /  60  40  60  50 
Macon           94  73  91  73 /  30  30  40  30 
Rome            86  70  88  70 /  70  40  60  50 
Peachtree City  90  71  88  71 /  50  40  50  40 
Vidalia         96  75  93  75 /  30  20  30  20