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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
000
FXUS62 KFFC 201846
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Widespread severe weather is not expected today, but marginally 
strong to a few severe storms are possible today as diurnally-driven 
convection fires. Weak upper level trough remains situated over the 
area, and the surface low feature will continue to provide a focus 
for storm development. This low will move northeastward over the 
Carolinas into Wednesday, with drier westerly flow setting up behind 
it. 

Models continue to show highest storm chances over the southern and 
eastern portions of the CWA, with gusty winds and frequent lightning 
as main concerns. Additionally, with high precipitable water values, 
brief heavy downpours can be expected with the strong or slow-moving 
storms, and a quickly accumulating 1-2 inches or more are possible. 

Rain chances are not quite as high Wednesday with the absence of 
better moisture, but have continued to forecast good chance 
thunderstorms for the peak heating period. 

High temperatures Wednesday are slightly higher than today, with 
most of the area back in the 90s. Heat Index values will largely be 
under 100, with a few patchy areas just above 100.

31

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Afternoon and evening scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms will continue through the extended periods of the 
forecast. The area will remain situated in the weak upper trough 
between the ridge over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge. 
Moisture continues to slowly increase across the area through the 
end of the week which will will provide a boost each afternoon for
convective development. By the end of the week, the models are 
showing a cold front pushing south out of the great lake state 
Thursday and into North GA Friday. The models show this frontal 
boundary stalling across the southeastern U.S. and keeping rain 
chances across the region through the end of the forecast period.
By Sat/Sun a wedge of high pressure builds down the eastern 
seaboard and keeps things rainy and cool for this time of year. 
Looking at temps in the 70s and 80s across north and central GA.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Storms already developing this afternoon, and timing for TEMPO is
still generally 18-00z depending on the TAF site. Activity
expected to diminish overnight, with returning rain chances after
19z Wednesday. Low clouds should be patchy at best, and have only
overnight VFR cig conditions at TAF sites. SCT CU will develop
after 14z. Winds will shift to the west over the next few hours,
then stay west through the day Wednesday. Speeds will be 10kt or
less, except in/near convection. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on wind speed and direction.
Medium on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  91  71  91 /  40  40  30  40 
Atlanta         73  91  73  90 /  40  40  30  50 
Blairsville     66  83  66  83 /  40  50  40  60 
Cartersville    71  92  71  92 /  40  40  30  60 
Columbus        73  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  50 
Gainesville     71  89  71  89 /  40  50  30  60 
Macon           71  92  72  93 /  30  30  20  40 
Rome            72  92  72  92 /  30  40  30  60 
Peachtree City  71  93  72  92 /  40  30  20  50 
Vidalia         73  92  73  93 /  30  40  30  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...31