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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
000
FXUS62 KFFC 190549
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
149 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 910 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ 

UPDATE...

Made a few adjustments to POPs, hourly Temps/DewPoints through the
remainder of the overnight period for current trends. Generally
seeing a decrease in coverage and intensity of convection as we lose
heating and upper support wanes. Kept chance POPs through the
overnight as ample moisture remains over the area with marginal
instability lingering and plenty of boundaries around from earlier 
convection. 

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 745 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ 

.00Z Aviation Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms moving NE
across the area this afternoon. We just issued our first severe
thunderstorm warning and with the way things are progressing this
will mostly likely not be the last one today. The current 
marginal risk across North and Central GA still looks good 
especially with instability developing and the showers and 
thunderstorms becoming more numerous. These showers and 
thunderstorms are associated with a strong shortwave that moved 
east out of the Mississippi river valley overnight and is now 
pushing across the local area. The forecast models continue to 
indicate a decent amount of instability this afternoon. Current 
Mesoanalysis shows surface based capes in the 1500 to 2500 J/KG 
range with LIs in the -4 to -5 range across the state. This will 
definitely help with developing some severe storms with the 
greatest threats being strong gusty winds and hail. PWs are also 
in the 1.8in to 2.0in range so looking for periods of heavy rain 
as well. This shortwave will continue to push east overnight with
some slightly drier air working in by mid morning Wednesday. Will
still keep chance pops in as some embedded followup shortwaves 
move through but overall, activity should be less than today. 
Abundant cloud cover will keep temps in check with low to mid 80s 
for the North but still getting to the 90s degree mark for Central
GA.

01

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No major changes needed for the forecast. 

500mb trough will continue moving out of the CWFA Thursday night 
with NW flow aloft setting up briefly. 500mb high pressure center 
sets up in the GOMEX, with the CWFA on the periphery of the ridging 
in a prime position to be impacted by shortwaves in the flow. The 
models are hinting at some potential for a MCS on Saturday. Another 
500mb trough may impact the SE states early next week.

At the surface, a weak surface boundary will slip south over the 
CWFA on Thursday. Some question on how far south the boundary will 
make it before pushing back north as a warm front during the weekend. 
The CWFA will remain in the warm sector into next week, with a lee 
trough noted in the pattern.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR and IFR arrival has been earlier than guidance had suggested.
Although it will be in and out the next few hours, should be here
to stay by 08Z. Low cigs will rise slowly through mid morning with
VFR conditions possible by afternoon. Additional SHRA and possibly
TSRA to affect the region by afternoon although chances not high
enough yet for a TEMPO. For now, will cover with VCSH and a Prob30
for the TS which will need to be pushed back to 21Z. Additional
low clouds likely for Wed night across the area. Winds look to
remain on the west side for this cycle for ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

Medium on cig heights and duration tonight.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  71  88  69 /  40  30  60  30 
Atlanta         85  73  86  71 /  50  40  60  30 
Blairsville     80  65  79  63 /  50  60  60  30 
Cartersville    85  71  85  69 /  50  50  60  30 
Columbus        89  74  91  74 /  40  30  60  30 
Gainesville     84  71  84  68 /  50  50  60  30 
Macon           89  73  92  72 /  50  30  60  30 
Rome            86  71  85  69 /  50  60  60  30 
Peachtree City  86  71  88  70 /  50  40  60  30 
Vidalia         90  74  92  74 /  50  30  60  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese