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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
000
FXUS62 KFFC 131120 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
620 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018


.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Southwest, increasingly diffluent, upper flow developing across the 
region today through Friday as a strong closed upper low digs into 
the southern plains and slowly turns east into the lower Mississippi 
Valley. Appears the forecast area will remain mainly dry through the 
day today, with precipitation spreading across tonight through 
Friday. Sufficient instability for at least isolated thunder Friday. 
Dynamics are strong and shear is marginal for organized severe 
storms, but convection, especially across the far south, will need 
to be watch on Friday for an isolated severe threat. Latest QPF 
totals through the day Saturday are down a bit, and overall threat 
for additional flooding is lower. However, soils remain wet and 
streamflows elevated ahead of this system so any increase in 
expected rainfall amounts will need to be watched closely as well.

20


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The long term begins with the above mention storm system
continuing across the CWA. Models in better agreement with timing
and location of deepest moisture and instability. Have continued
with slight chance of thunder into Friday night as there remains
some instability across the CWA. This system finally pulls out by
Sunday leaving the rest of the long term mostly dry. Toward the
end of the long term models differ considerably as the ECMWF
develops an elongated trough over the Mississippi Valley spreading
moisture into the CWA by Wednesday night, and the GFS developing a
closed low over northern Mexico leaving the CWA dry. Will continue
with a dry forecast for now at the end of the long term.

17


&&

.AVIATION... 
12Z UPDATE...

VFR conditions expected to dominate through 00Z. MVFR ceilings begin 
spreading north and east across the forecast area 00-06Z as light 
precipitation moves into the region. Will see conditions continue to 
deteriorate, lowering to IFR most areas 06-12Z Friday as 
precipitation coverage and intensity increases. Light south to 
southwest winds will become south to southeast by 09-12Z, increasing 
to 5-10kt and becoming more southeast to east after 18Z. Winds 
increase further to 8-12kt after 00Z, generally from the east to 
northeast. 

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

High.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  44  52  46 /  10 100 100  60 
Atlanta         53  46  54  46 /  10 100 100  60 
Blairsville     51  41  51  44 /  10 100 100  70 
Cartersville    53  45  53  46 /  10 100 100  60 
Columbus        58  51  62  50 /  20 100 100  50 
Gainesville     51  43  50  45 /  10 100 100  60 
Macon           56  49  61  51 /  10 100 100  50 
Rome            53  46  54  46 /  10 100 100  70 
Peachtree City  54  47  57  47 /  10 100 100  60 
Vidalia         61  53  64  57 /  10 100 100  60 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20