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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 171937

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
237 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Issued at 236 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2019

Tranquil weather is the story for this St Patrick's Day, with mostly 
sunny skies. Temperatures are running several degrees below 
yesterdays readings as high pressure has built into the area, 
also resulting in relatively light and variable winds. Ongoing 
and/or anticipated flooding continues along the MO River, with 
some crests slightly lower/delayed due to upstream levee breaks. 
Expect cloud deck between 5-10kft to develop this evening into 
tonight as influence from an upper wave serves a glancing blow to 
the area. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles in far NW MO, but 
probability is very low. The quiet weather will stretch into 
Monday, with very similar temperatures to today expected. 

Models remain in good agreement for the next weather maker to arrive 
on Tuesday. Increasing warm air advection and large scale ascent 
from a quick-moving upper trough dropping in from the Northern 
Plains will generate widespread precipitation beginning early 
Tuesday morning, with activity spreading from west to east during 
the day, ending by late Tuesday evening. With the amount of warm air 
advection in advance of the system, the the large majority of this 
event will be in the form of rain. Cannot completely dismiss a low 
probability of a very brief window for a wintry mix of rain/snow at 
the onset of precipitation across northern/northeast MO, but any 
duration would be short and not accumulate. Rainfall amounts will 
average between 0.25-0.50". Initial indications suggest the high-end 
of forecasted rainfall will have only a small increase to the crests 
currently projected for ongoing river flooding along the MO River, 
with roughly a half-foot increase possible. 

A warming trend is expected Thursday into next weeekend with high 
temperatures reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s as upper ridging 
builds into the central CONUS. Several strong upper waves are 
expected to approach/move through the forecast area Friday into the 
weekend, spelling periodic chances for rain/thunderstorms.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2019

VFR conditions anticipated through the period. Upstream cloud deck 
between 5-8kft will move/develop over terminal space this evening 
and persist through the end of the forecast period. Surface winds
will generally remain variable with speeds under 6 kts.