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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 192316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2019

Message of the day: Heat remains a big concern for the rest of today 
and tomorrow. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected both days 
with heat indices ranging from 103-110 degrees. Additionally, there 
are chances for severe weather tomorrow morning, mainly in northeast 
MO. Damaging winds are the main concern with hail up to 1 inch also 
possible.

Upper level ridging, southerly surface flow, and the northward 
advancement of a warm front have helped area temperatures reach the 
low to mid 90s so far with dew points making it to the gross mid to 
upper 70s. This is resulting in heat indices so far ranging from 100 
to 107 degrees. The highest of these numbers are being observed 
from Atchison county KS over to Johnson county MO and counties 
south. This is where we have today's heat advisory in effect now 
through 8 PM tonight. While we will drop below heat advisory 
criteria overnight, it is worth noting lows are only expected to 
drop into the mid 70s, which does not provide much relief. 
Therefore, heat precautions need to be practiced overnight as well
as during the afternoon and evening. Tonight, an upper level 
shortwave is expected to round the ridge, in conjunction with the 
LLJ overrunning the warm front, which is expected to stall out 
near the MO/IA border. This will result in a MCS developing in IA,
eventually moving southeast through northeast MO. This convective
complex is likely to be more intense in IA, but damaging winds 
and some hail will be possible as it moves into MO. Scattered 
storm chances also extend west along the warm front to the MO/KS 
border in the morning. Winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch 
will be possible in these areas as well. The MCS should exit the 
area by noon with the trailing line of storms moving south 
throughout the morning, eventually fizzling out in the early 
afternoon. This area of storms should stay north of the MO River.

Despite storm chances Tuesday, another hot day is expected with 
highs in the low to mid 90s again, dew points in the upper 70s and 
heat indicies then ranging from upper 90s to 110 degrees. The 
highest numbers are expected from about Holt county MO southeast to 
Howard county MO and counties southwestward. This is where Tuesday's 
heat advisory is, which is in effect from 1 PM until 8 PM. There is 
a little uncertainty regarding temperatures and heat indices, 
especially in northern and northeast MO due to storm chances, 
however, the low pressure developing in eastern CO should 
reinforce the warm air and moisture advection into the area. 

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, another round of convection is 
expected as another ridge runner moves through the region with a 
strengthening LLJ and the warm front still across the area. Strong 
to severe weather will be possible with these storms as well, with 
strong to damaging winds and hail being the main concerns. Not much 
movement is expected with these synoptic features, however, so storm 
chances will continue across the entire area into the day Wednesday 
through Thursday. A few strong to severe storms will be possible 
during this time as well as heavy rainfall. PWATs right now look to 
average around 2 inches. This could lead to widespread rainfall 
totals between 1-2 inches Wednesday and Thursday. 

Good news is things cool off Wednesday through the end of the week 
with highs back in the 80s and much more tolerable dew points. 

As for storm chances for later in the week, multiple shortwave 
troughs are expected to move through, providing continued on/off 
storm chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with just high
level clouds and light winds. There is a small chance for trailing
showers and storms to move into northwestern MO tomorrow morning.
A cluster of thunderstorms should move southeast through IA late
tonight and into northeastern MO tomorrow morning. Showers and
storms are possible along that systems outflow boundary. There is
considerable uncertainty regarding this. So for now have left it
out of the forecast. There is also a chance for LLWS. But this
should be confined to far northwestern MO and northeastern KS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-029-037-038-
     043-044-053-054.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ011-020-021-
     028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...CDB