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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 192148
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

Message of the day: Wintry precipitation is still expected this 
afternoon through Wednesday morning. The Winter Storm Warning 
remains in effect for northwest and north central MO, with a 
Winter Storm Advisory for our remaining counties. Hazardous travel
is possible for this evening's commute and is expected for 
Wednesday morning's commute.

The upper level trough currently residing over the Rockies will be 
our weather maker today into tomorrow. It will move northeast 
through the Midwest tonight, becoming negatively tilted as it does
so. Moisture and wintry precipitation is already evident on radar
in south central KS. This area of precipitation will continue 
moving northeast and filling in through the afternoon and evening 
hours. We should start seeing snow in our southwestern counties as
early as 4 PM. Areas in between the KC Metro to Clinton and north
from St. Joseph to Moberly should see snow move in between 5-7 
PM. All of these area will likely have at least minor impacts to 
the evening commute. Areas north of a St. Joseph to Moberly line 
should then see snow in the 7-9 PM time frame. The snow could be 
moderate to heavy at times, with visibility dropping to 1-2 miles 
across the area. Around 9 PM, we will start losing cloud ice from 
the south to the north making the snow transition to a wintry mix.
The wintry mix should make it to the KC Metro over to Kirksville 
around midnight and is mainly expected along and east of I-35. 
Those in far northwest MO and northeast KS should continue to see 
mostly snow overnight but a little sleet or freezing rain mixing 
in is certainly possible given there is some uncertainty regarding
cloud ice and whether or not we lose it in this area. The 
precipitation should start moving out of the area tomorrow 
morning around 6 AM in our southwest counties and exiting our 
northeastern counties by noon. 

When all is said and done, 5-7 inches of snow is expected in 
northwestern and north central MO with a glaze of ice. Therefore, 
the Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 PM tonight until 9 
AM tomorrow. For Doniphan county, KS over to Macon county, MO up to 
Putnam and Schuyler counties in MO 2-5 inches of snow is expected 
with ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Therefore, a 
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM tonight through 9 AM 
Wednesday. From Atchison county, KS over to Randolph county, MO and 
counties south, 1-4 inches of snow is expected with ice 
accumulations up to fifteen hundredths of an inch. Therefore, a 
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 4 PM this evening through 
9 AM tomorrow. 

Behind this system surface high pressure moves in, helping keep us 
dry for the second half of Wednesday through most of Friday. 
Temperatures will moderate some with highs Wednesday in the 30s, and 
then upper 30s to 40s Thursday and Friday. Friday night, another 
deep upper level trough looks to move into the Midwest bringing our 
next chance for precipitation. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the 
system strengthening as it moves over the region, with the 
surface low currently tracking over our forecast area. Both models
continue to show temperatures above freezing, making this more of
a rain event. However, wintry precipitation is possible during 
the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and again Saturday into 
Sunday. During the day Saturday, some might be able to hear a 
rumble of thunder or two if we do become a little unstable like 
models suggests. The pattern looks to remain active with another 
chance for precipitation early next week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

Wintry precipitation returns this evening through Wednesday 
morning. Snow is expected to move into eastern KS and western MO 
around 22-00Z and quickly move northeastward. Visibility and 
ceilings will drop as well and will stay low through much of the 
night. Moderate pockets of snow are possible between 00Z-06Z, 
especially in northwest MO and northeast KS. Around midnight, we 
will start to see a transition to freezing rain from the south to 
the north. A freezing rain and snow mix is possible mainly along 
and east of I-35. The wintry precipitation is expected to move out
from the southwest to the northeast around sunrise, with 
lingering freezing drizzle/drizzle possible through the morning 
hours. Overall, conditions should start improving around 18Z 
Wednesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ007-008-
     012>017-020>025.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>006-011.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana