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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 202315
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 223 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2019

A notable increasing temperature trend has begun across eastern 
Kansas and western Missouri as of the early afternoon, coincident 
with southwesterly surface winds and resulting warm advection on the 
back side of a departing surface ridge. Dew point values have also 
increased slightly, though elevated fire weather concerns will
persist through the afternoon given the large temp/dew point
spread and resulting relative humidity values in the 30 percent
range. While a ridging pattern continues to advect overhead this 
evening, a deepening mid-level trough will make its way inland 
across the west coast, eventually stalling across the Four Corners
by Monday. A shortwave trough will eject ahead of this feature 
late Sunday, atop the local warm sector. Still anticipating 
showers and thunderstorms beginning late Sunday evening into the 
overnight hours throughout the area. Conditions look to cooperate 
nicely for Easter festivities in the morning and afternoon. The 
only caveat will be with gusty conditions throughout the day as a 
surface low strengthens across central Kansas. Expecting gusts up 
to 35 to perhaps 40 mph out of the south during peak heating 
Sunday. Afternoon highs will also rise into the lower 80s, 
approximately 10 to 15 degrees above normal values.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop within the 
warm sector late Sunday, and continue off and on through Monday 
until the attendant cold front pushes through the area on Tuesday.
The frontal boundary will be slow to push through as the 
southwestern trough deepens, eventually forming a cut-off low to 
the south. This will also help to maintain precip chances behind 
the front as shortwave energy continues to eject northeast of the 
trough, overhead the local area. While precip chances are possible
over a multi-day period, overall rainfall totals should be 
limited to a quarter to a half inch or less across most areas. 
Additionally, severe weather is not anticipated at this time 
through the early week.

Above normal temperature trends will resume in the wake of the early 
to mid-week activity as a broad ridging pattern develops upstream. 
Dry conditions will then give way to another round of rain shower 
and thunderstorm chances by next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2019

Mainly a wind forecast with winds up through sunset, then lighter 
overnight. Wind shear will pick up assuming full decoupling with the 
boundary layer, which is expected. Once daytime mixing picks up 
after sunrise expect winds to gradually increase through the day. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Leighton