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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 230431

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1131 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Issued at 318 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2019

We'll see quiet, dry weather through the remainder of the evening 
and into the day tomorrow. A detached upper-level wave will move 
into the area tomorrow afternoon, spreading a chance for light rain 
across the area. Rain amounts from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday 
afternoon may be as high as half an inch in northwestern 
MO/northeastern KS. This will have little impact on the river 
flooding and QPF is already accounted for in the river forecasts. 
But given much of the area is saturated, there could be some 
localized flooding issues, aside from the ongoing river flooding. 
The next chance for precipitation will come the middle of next week. 
Broad upper ridging is expected spread over the region next week. At 
the lower levels, lee troughing will lead to southerly winds. With 
moisture lifting northward into the area by a strong low level jet, 
there may be some scattered showers and/or thunderstorms Wednesday 
through Friday.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler tomorrow, though still in the mid 
to upper 50s across the area, which is close to normal. Highs will 
fluctuate in the mid to upper 50s through early next week. It won't 
be until the middle part of next week, when strong warm advection 
develops, that highs start to climb into the mid to even upper 60s.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2019

VFR conditions will persist through the overnight ahead of the
next storm system, which will impact the terminals beginning
early Saturday afternoon. Existing dry air in the lower levels
will maintain VFR conditions initially, though by 20 to 21Z, MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop, along with periods of light to
moderate rain showers. Precipitation will begin to thin out toward
sunset before the next round returns Saturday night, with embedded
thunderstorms possible.