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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 202313
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
513 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 422 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

The winter storm that brought a combination of snow and freezing 
drizzle has lifted north into Iowa and will continue towards the 
lower Great Lakes later this evening. Behind this system, clouds 
have eroded through the late morning and early afternoon with most 
locations seeing partly to mostly sunny skies late this 
afternoon. The sun combined with temperatures in the mid to upper 
30s should help to melt some of the lingering slush and icy spots 
on primary roadways. Surface high pressure will settle into the 
region tonight allowing temperatures to fall back into the teens 
and 20s by Thursday morning. Any slushy or wet roads and paved 
surfaces will quickly refreeze...so caution should be used if 
traveling tonight and/or early tomorrow morning. 

A bit of good news...warmer temperatures are on the way. 
Temperatures will climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Thursday 
and gradually warm into the 40s and, likely some 50s, by 
Saturday. The overall weather pattern continues to remain 
relatively active in the extended with a potent trough digging out
of the desert southwest late this week into the weekend, and 
another potential system by the middle of next next week. 
In between these systems, zonal flow will keep us cool but not 
overly cold. 

The weekend system will be the one to watch for now as the low 
really begins to deepen as it ejects into the Texas and Oklahoma 
Panhandles early Saturday. Models continue to remain consistent with 
the track of the upper low moving on a SW to NE track from the 
Panhandles up through Kansas and northwest Missouri and continuing 
northwards towards the Great Lakes. The system really ramps up 
over Kansas where quickly falling heights will allow for 
strengthening surface winds making for a rather windy day Saturday.
The EC and GFS have slightly different tracks with the surface 
low and this could have some impacts on precipitation and wind 
gusts across the forecast area. Increasing warm air advection and 
a moistening airmass will allow drizzle and light rain to spread 
northward Friday morning with rain showers and thunderstorms 
possible late Friday and continuing Saturday. Current track of 
the system should keep the forecast area rain to begin with on the front-
side with a possible wintry mix moving in late Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 513 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

A quiet forecast with VFR conditions over the next 24 hours for 
all TAF sites. Gusty WSW winds will weaken as the sunsets tonight
and winds will become light and variable by early morning. Winds 
will switch from the east near noon at 8kts. |

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...CDB/Otto