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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 191123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 241 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019

Shortwave ridging and cold air advection will allow for a tranquil and
cool Sunday/Monday. Clouds will hold through at least much of the
morning, with scattered showers remaining possible. Highs in the 
middle 60s to lower 70s both afternoons. 

An active weather pattern returns for the area as another strong 
upper trough emerges into the Plains on Monday into Tuesday. The 
primary concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall and severe 
weather. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to 
develop during the daylight hours over much of Kansas, generally 
along/north of a surface warm front projected to slowly lift 
northward from northern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas. This 
activity will eventually reach and overspread the forecast area 
during Monday evening. Additional thunderstorms will develop in the 
warm sector over far southern Kansas into Oklahoma, and spread 
northeastward while generally losing storm severity as convection 
outpaces instability. Heavy rainfall from one or two rounds of 
precipitation is expected Monday evening into early Tuesday morning 
across portions of the northwest half of the CWA.  

By sunrise Tuesday morning, the surface warm front will attempt to 
limp northward, likely fighting some reinforcement from widespread 
precipitation to the north. Still, models suggest this feature could 
reach the I-70 corridor by noon Tuesday. Another round of
convection, potentially ongoing and gradually intensifying as the
day progresses, is expected ahead of the cold front that will 
quickly move through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday 
afternoon will be the most probable window for severe weather
within our forecast area with this system. While deep layer shear
will be more than supportive for storm organization, the 
available instability remains in question, even within the lifting
warm sector due to the potential for cloud debris. That said, the
eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area will need to be closely 
monitored as a surface low tracks across the CWA, with strong low-
level shear and dynamics in place, pockets of straight-line wind 
damage and perhaps a brief tornado embedded in the line would be 
the primary hazards. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat 
will end as the front sweeps through the area by early evening. 

Have issued a flash flood watch for the NW 1/2 of the forecast area 
for the several rounds of potential heavy rainfall anticipated 
Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon. The watch covers areas that 
are expected to receive some of the heaviest precipitation amounts 
and/or areas that are more sensitive to heavy rainfall based on 
today's rainfall/antecedent conditions. 

Active weather will return late in the work week into the weekend as 
a parade of upper troughs continue to cycle through the 
Intermountain West and eject into the Plains.  

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019

A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings will continue through the morning hours
before clouds begin to clear and VFR conditions persist. Scattered
showers will remain possible in terminal space this morning,
although impacts should be brief/minimal. Northwest winds will
prevail. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening 
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening 
     for MOZ001>007-011>016-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair