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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 240437

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019

Regional water vapor imagery depicting an upper-level low 
pressure system over western Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon, 
with isolated to scattered shower activity downstream over the 
lower Missouri Vly and east-central Plains. Despite the radar 
appearance this afternoon, stubborn dry low-level air has kept 
steady precipitation at bay so far today, and latest radar trends
across eastern Kansas suggest there will be a break in activity 
for a few hours before developing activity across central Kansas 
finally slides east later this afternoon and evening. Once this 
occurs, expect on and off shwrs to persist through the night, with
a few claps of thunder not out of the whelm of possibilities 
thanks to weak instability as seen on various forecast soundings. 
Fortunately with the ongoing river flooding occurring, we 
shouldn't see heavy rain amounts with most areas likely remaining 
under a half inch through Sunday.

Speaking of Sunday, aforementioned upper low will traverse our 
region with best chances for shwrs and storms shifting east of 
Route 65 through the morning hours. Again, some instability will 
be present, however better core of moisture return will remain 
south and east of the area which should prevent any developing 
storms from getting too far out of hand. Rain should finally move
east of the forecast area Sunday evening which should lead to a 
few days of dry weather for the first half of the work week before
the next round of precipitation arrives on Thursday. This will 
mark the beginning of an unsettled period which should persist 
through the conclusion of the forecast period as a series of 
disturbances bring reoccurring rain chances through next weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019

High end MVFR stratus is expected through much of the overnight,
with periods of IFR ceilings early Sunday morning. A band of rain
showers will clip the terminal sites early Sunday as well, thus
reducing visibilities slightly during this time. Conditions will
improve after sunrise, though MVFR ceilings are expected to
persist through much of the day. Surface winds will continue to
veer with time, ultimately becoming northwesterly by Sunday