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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 222343
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
543 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 417 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

Message of the day: Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday 
afternoon through early Sunday morning in Atchison county MO, with 
patchy blowing snow and reduced visibilities for Atchison county KS 
and areas northeast to Harrison county MO. 

Currently satellite depicts high pressure over far southeastern U.S. 
with strong troughing over the Rocky Mountains. It is the trough 
over the Rockies that is already influencing our weather and will 
continue to do so through early Sunday morning. So far, we have 
really only seen an increase in moisture advection resulting in 
overcast skies and some drizzle in central MO. Tonight, the trough 
out west will eject a shortwave trough over our area while the low 
level jet ramps up. This will result in scattered rain for most of 
the night. PWATs will be above normal and those along and west of I-
35 could see around one half of an inch of rain by sunrise, with up 
to one quarter of an inch east of the interstate. There is also a 
possibility far northwest MO could see some light freezing rain, but 
right now high res models keep temperatures above freezing. If temps 
do drop to freezing or below, a light glaze of ice is possible. We 
could see a break from the rain mid-morning, but it won't last long. 
Also overnight, the main system will strengthen, becoming closed 
and negatively tilted. The surface low will become organized over 
the TX and OK panhandles and the system will begin moving to the 
northeast. The track continues to be from southwest KS to 
southeastern IA up into southern WI. The warm front, oriented from
west to east, will move north into the area during the day 
Saturday as the low moves northeast. A couple of things will 
accompany the warm front, the first being warm temperatures. 
Temperatures should warm into the 40s and 50s for most of the 
area, with the exception of far NW MO who will likely stay in the 
30s. The second is instability. The instability won't be 
sufficient enough for strong or severe storms, but should be 
enough for a few thunderstorms to develop in the late morning and 
afternoon.

In the late afternoon, the system will begin moving out of the area, 
quickly ushering in the cold air behind it. A deformation band of 
snow will start to set up, right now centered over central KS 
northeast through Omaha into northern IA. Northwest MO and northeast 
KS continue to be on the edge of this band. The snowfall and 40 mph 
wind gusts associated with the cold front will result in blizzard 
conditions for Atchison county MO and patchy blowing snow and 
reduced visibilities from Atchison county KS northeast to Harrison 
County MO. Therefore, a Blizzard Warning as been issued for Atchison 
county MO from 2 PM Saturday through 3 AM Sunday morning with a 
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the same time frame for 
Atchison county KS over to Harrison county MO. Extreme caution needs 
to be taken if out on the roads. Slick roads and whiteout conditions 
are likely in the blizzard warning area, with slick roads and 
reduced visibilities in the advisory area. When all is said and 
done, up to 1.25 inches of liquid is expected northwest of a line 
from the KC metro to Kirksville, with a quarter to a half of an inch 
for areas southeast of that line. For snowfall, 2-4 inches is 
expected in Atchison county MO, with a dusting to 2 inches for areas 
between Atchison county and a line from the KC metro to Kirksville. 
Also, can't rule out a light glaze of ice in northern MO late 
Saturday. The precipitation should move out early Sunday morning, 
but winds will remain strong for much of Sunday, especially in 
northeast MO.

With the melting we have been seeing and the additional rainfall, 
some flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams are possible at the end 
of the weekend into early next week. So, if water is over roadways, 
remember to turn around, don't drown.

High pressure will move in behind this system Sunday. This and the 
zonal flow will help keep things mostly quiet for next week. This 
will also keep temperatures below normal.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

The prevailing TAF period will see continued LIFR/IFR/MVFR
conditions with periods of fog, drizzle, and rain. Visibilities
will likely bounce between LIFR and IFR with rain showers moving
through tonight and again during the latter half of the period
scouring out the fog. However, depending on the intensity of the
rain showers, and possibly some thunderstorms after 20Z, will 
also have an impact on visibilities. Ceilings will lower tonight 
as low-level moisture continues to work into the region ahead of 
a weather system that will move through Saturday. Light winds 
will generally be out of the east through 15Z before increasing
and veering around to southwesterly then northwesterly behind the
cold front that will move through the terminals late in the 
period. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday 
     for KSZ025-102.

MO...Blizzard Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday for 
     MOZ001.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday 
     for MOZ002>005-011-012.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...PPietrycha