Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 251016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
516 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.Update...
Issued at 516 AM CDT THU APR 25 2019

Have expanded the dense fog advisory to the entire forecast area.
GOES East nighttime microphysics imagery shows the fog expanding
through the valleys in northeastern KS and northwestern MO. This
will likely expand out of the valleys like it did in north
central MO so have have just added the all counties to the
advisory. Additionally, obs in St. Joseph, Falls City, NE and
Clarinda, IA have all fogged in so feel it's just a matter of 
time before fog grows deep enough to escape the river valleys.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 AM CDT THU APR 25 2019

There are several forecast challenges in the near term. For this 
morning, dense fog has developed. While this most widespread in 
central to northeastern MO, where it shows up nicely, or did before 
the cirrus moved over, on the GOES East nighttime microphysics 
imagery. In west central MO and adjoining areas of KS, the fog seems 
to be shallower and more spotty in nature. Still, visibilities have 
fluctuated from 1/4 mile to 1 mile at several observation sites 
through the KC metro early this morning. So have gone with a dense 
fog advisory for areas that are generally along and east of I-35. 
Fog is expected to lift between 13Z and 15Z. The earlier time looks 
more likely in the western portions with eastern portions, where fog 
is thicker, should burn of a little later.

The other issue for today is a frontal passage this afternoon. 
Models have trended wetter with the front and as a result have 
maintained the higher PoPs inherited. Models also show a little 
higher instability and with that higher instability have expanded 
mention of thunderstorms. Even with the higher instability, the 
CAPE/shear combination is still weak and no severe weather is 
expected. Precipitation will push east of the are this evening.

The next chance for precipitation will come late Friday night into 
Saturday. A fairly strong shortwave trough will track across NE and 
IA late Friday night through Saturday. Showers, and perhaps a few 
storms may develop along the associated cold front as it moves 
across the area.  Instability only looks like several hundred J/kg 
so if there are any storms they should be fairly isolated.

Next week looks very active with multiple rounds of showers and 
storms, some of which have the potential to bring strong to severe 
storms to the area. Models show the upper jet more active over the 
middle of the country with several upper level waves moving over the 
region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019

A stationary front across southern MO will help in fog and low
cloud development in the early morning hours. Areas of fog is
expected to develop as far west as the MO/KS border, with more
dense fog in central and north-central MO. Conditions should 
improve through the morning hours as a cold front approaches the 
area. The cold front should move through during the afternoon, 
increasing winds and shifting them to the north- northwest. In 
addition, a scattered line of showers with isolated thunder should
develop along the front, moving through area with it. Rain 
chances and wind speeds should both decrease after sunset, leaving
the rest of the TAF period quiet with clear skies.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Update...CDB
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Grana