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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 210929

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Issued at 329 AM CST THU FEB 21 2019

Broad southwest flow prevailing overhead this morning out ahead of
closed upper low now digging across the Great Basin and 
Intermountain West. This will allow heights to slowly increase 
downstream which combined with modest low-level thermal advection,
should allow temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 40s 
this afternoon for most, with mid- to upper 30s expected along and
north of Route 36 where a higher snow pack will likely hold 
temperatures down a little bit. Dry conditions should prevail 
through much of the overnight hours tonight before return flow 
moisture begins lifting northward after 12z Friday. As this moves 
into the region, there will be a brief period where light freezing
drizzle will be possible, however this activity is expected to 
remain fairly isolated and shouldn't result in too much of an 
impact over the region. Aforementioned return flow moisture will 
lead to an increase in cloud cover for Friday, which should keep 
temperatures a few degrees cooler than today's with patchy light 
drizzle remaining a possibility throughout the day. 

Main attention will then shift to large-scale upper low now in-
place over the western U.S. as it ejects east and moves over the
region Saturday and Saturday night. Models in recent days have
been in general agreement that the main sfc and 850-hPa lows will
track in close proximity to our region, with previous forecasts
favoring light to moderate rain for a good portion of the day on
Saturday before a gradual transition to snow late Saturday/early
Sunday. Unfortunately model spread has increased this morning in
the forecast low tracks, which could ultimately have major 
impacts on the expected outcome with this system. Right now, the 
NAM is the farthest southward solution and brings a strip of 8-10"
of snow across northern portions of the CWA, while the GFS is the
farthest north and keeps the bulk of heavy accumulating snow 
north of our area. In the meantime, the ECMWF has come in as the 
in-between solution which does support snow accumulations mainly 
along and northwest of the I-35 corridor. For now, advisory level 
snowfalls look possible from Saturday night through early Sunday 
morning before precipitation gradually ends early Sunday. Based 
on model spread, have attempted to play the conservative card 
this morning with recognition that future model runs will have a 
large impact on subsequent forecasts. In any event, rain with 
isolated thunderstorms on Saturday looks as if it will quickly 
changeover to all snow after 00z Sunday with activity likely 
coming to and end by 12z. It appears the higher snow amounts 
advertised on the NAM are closely tied to a strong frontogenesis 
signature which appears much weaker in other models, and this has
been a recognized model bias this year. In any event, stay tuned
as future model runs will be imperative for this weekend's 

Beyond this, dry weather looks to return to the region under zonal
flow aloft. This should support seasonal temperatures and below
normal precipitation chances for early next week. 


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

No significant changes to the forecast. VFR conditions to 
continue throughout the TAF period for all terminals. SW winds 
will weaken to variable less than 5kts until mid morning when 
winds will turn from the east at 8kts.