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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 231731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

The front that moved through the area last evening has settled 
generally from southwest OK northeastward through southwestern MO 
into east central MO. Water vapor imagery with 1.5 PVU pressure 
overlaid shows a closed low over the the Southwest with a shortwave 
moving through the TX panhandle into southwest OK. An area of 
thunderstorms is in this area with its rain shield extending into 
southern KS. As this shortwave moves east through the day and into 
MO overnight tonight, the area of showers/storms will lift east 
northeast with it. The main trend in the models has been to lift 
this area of precipitation further north and it looks like there 
will be a decent chance for rain for much of the forecast 
area as the shortwave moves through. Given this, have trended PoPs 
higher across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. The 
timing of this looks like later this afternoon into this evening 
along the I-70 corridor for the onset. Showers may persist in our 
southeastern zones through Wednesday afternoon as the shortwave begins 
to exit the area. Overall, rain amounts with this system look to be 
on the light side, with only a few hundredths to a few tenths of an 
inch expected. With ample cloud cover today and cooler temperatures 
anyway behind the front, highs today should only be in the low to 
middle 60s. 

After this mid-week system moves out, the next decent chance for 
precipitation looks to be Friday night/Saturday morning. A mid-level 
shortwave trough will move across the central to northern Plains into 
the Upper Midwest. A strong low-level jet will develop in response 
to the shortwave across KS and MO. It looks possible that a 
cluster of storms will form to our west-northwest and then 
track to the east with some development southward into the low-level 
jet.  The 23/00Z models are in decent agreement showing this moving 
into the forecast area early Saturday morning and moving out of the 
area by midday. A similar scenario may play out Sunday night into 
Monday. Another mid-level wave may initiate another area of storms 
to our west-northwest, with this area tracking eastward through the 
overnight and affecting the area early in the morning. There's a lot of 
time from now to these potential systems so lots could change. But 
it looks like the nearly zonal flow aloft will favor a bit more 
active of a pattern as periodic shortwaves quickly track across the country. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

MVFR ceilings will likely persist for much of the period, with a
brief window of VFR ceilings tonight, before dipping back to MVFR
around midnight. Winds will remain generally light, out of the
northeast and east. Kept VCSH for KC Metro sites, given current
area of showers moving north out of southeastern Kansas. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Kurtz