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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 181108

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Issued at 342 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2019

Dry conditions will hold on for one more day. Surface high 
pressure over the Dakotas will slide southeast over the forecast 
area today and continue east over the Ohio Valley tonight as 
widespread rain is still on schedule to arrive Tuesday. River 
forecast for sites along the Missouri River are still expected to 
reach moderate to major flood stage conditions this week.

Another quiet forecast today as an area of broad high pressure will 
produce light winds and variable clouds will help keep 
temperatures a couple of degrees below normal. However, an upper 
level trough and associated weak low pressure system will produce 
precipitation that will spread west to east across the CWA Tuesday
morning and eventually end by early Wednesday morning. Precipitation
may briefly start out as a snow/rain mix for the northern 
counties, but quickly change over to an all rain event. Recent forecast
models have trended slightly higher in regards to rainfall totals.
Amounts range from a 1/2" to 2/3" with highest amounts just north
of the Missouri River. Expect highs Wednesday to stay in the low 
50s as cloud cover will slowly decrease during the day. High 
amplitude upper level ridge over the Rockies moves east into the 
central US which will encourage temperatures to rebound into the 
mid-upper 50s on Thursday and 60s by Friday. Looking into the 
weekend, both GFS and ECMWF indicate widespread showers and 
possibly isolated thunderstorms as the next system arrives late 
Saturday into Sunday. 


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2019

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours for all TAF 
locations. However, expect scattered showers to move into western 
Missouri late in the TAF period near 19/09Z as a weak low pressure
system approaches the region. Winds will be light and variable for
much of today becoming southeasterly tomorrow morning 4-8 kts.