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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 240855
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

A line of storms stretched across south central Kansas to
southeast Nebraska will continue to drift northeast with time 
early Friday morning. Main steering flow aloft and a northward 
moving synoptic boundary draped over northern Missouri should keep
most of this activity across far northwest Missouri this morning,
initially. As the morning progresses, however, a southwesterly to
northeasterly oriented low-level jet will veer with time and any 
cold pool propagation from ongoing convection to the northwest 
will eventually bring the line of storms to the south through mid 
Friday morning into the afternoon. The initial concern will 
continue to be with the potential for flash flooding across 
northwest Missouri Friday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values on
the order of 1.5" to 1.75" are expected today into Saturday as a 
surge of Gulf moisture continues to advect northward with time. A 
break in activity is expected by the late morning and early 
afternoon as the upstream line of storms weakens with time. The 
overall synoptic boundary and any lingering outflow boundaries 
will serve as the focus for renewed convection this afternoon, 
persisting into the overnight. Though the exact placement of the 
primary axis for storm development depends on ongoing convection 
across central Kansas, the extent of the low-level jet veering, 
and the placement of the warm front, generally thinking that 
storms will form along an axis from eastern Kansas to northeast 
Missouri. Storms should quickly form a line and undergo little to 
no eastward movement as the mid/upper level ridge across the 
southeastern CONUS retrogrades into the evening. Have issued a 
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning within this area given 
sensitive antecedent conditions and resulting low flash flood 
guidance, and where forecast rainfall amounts range from 1.5" to 
2.25", with locally higher amounts possible. Additionally, dew 
point values will increase into the lower 70s by the afternoon, 
with SBCAPE values expected over 2500 J/kg and deep layer shear 
averaging between 30 to 40 kts. All combined, this will present 
the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening with 
the primary hazards being large hail and strong to damaging winds,
with an isolated tornado risk also possible.

While the severe threat will wane as the evening progresses, the 
potential for flash flooding will increase during the evening and 
overnight hours. All said, particularly with this occurring on a 
Friday evening and night, drivers will need to exercise caution
should roadways become flooded.

The local area will remain well within the warm sector until the 
upcoming mid-week, which will help to maintain additional storm 
chances through the weekend and early work week as a subsequent 
upper level trough advances over the west coast by the late 
weekend. Additional flooding hazards are likely beyond the 
current Flash Flood Watch, which will need to be addressed during 
subsequent forecasts. River flooding concerns will also persist
well into next week as the active pattern resumes.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

The warm front has lifted to the vicinity of the terminals.
Thunderstorms are developing along and north of the front from
northwestern MO through southwestern KS. These storms are
generally moving to the northeast. The overall area of storms 
should eventually shift south and start to impact the terminals
later tonight. Then through the day tomorrow, there is a good
chance the showers with embedded thunderstorms. It's actually hard
to find a period of time when there isn't some chance for
precipitation. Ceilings and visibility may drop to low MVFR or IFR
through the rounds of precipitation. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-102.

     Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday 
     morning for KSZ103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001-002-011-
     012-020.

     Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday 
     morning for MOZ003>008-013>017-021>024-028>030-037.

&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB