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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 211713
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1213 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 414 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2019

A pleasant morning for any outdoor Easter activities today as early 
morning temperatures are generally holding in the 50s and 60s, and 
will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will begin
to climb later this morning as will wind speeds. Deepening 
surface low across western Kansas will tighten the pressure 
gradient over eastern Kansas, and combined with steep lapse rates,
will help to mix down higher momentum air. This will result in 
gusty south winds this afternoon with wind gusts approaching 35 
to near 40 mph during prime heating hours. In addition, relative 
humidity values will plummet into the 35 to 40 percent range 
resulting in near critical fire weather conditions generally along
and west of I-29/I-49.

A cold front will slowly work southward today and will move into 
northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas late tonight...gradually 
pushing through the forecast area Monday and Tuesday. Pacific 
trough will dig into the Desert Southwest before getting closed 
off by a quick moving northern stream trough that quickly 
translates across the northern states Monday and Tuesday. The 
front will continue to slowly push south before stalling across 
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri Wednesday. The front looks
to wash out a bit before the Pacific trough finally ejects out 
onto the Southern Plains Thursday morning. Precipitation 
wise...the dry airmass in place will help to cap much of the 
region today. The exception will be out across western and central
Kansas and portions of Nebraska in the vicinity of the surface 
low and associated cold front. Moderate instability axis of around
2000-2500 J/kg will build by late tonight in central Kansas. As 
such, we could see some convection ignite across central Kansas in
vicinity of the low-level trough and instability axis. What 
convection is able to get going will move northeastward into 
northeast Kansas during the overnight hours; however, decreasing 
instability to the east will limit this activity and prevent any
severe threat. Moisture will increase Monday ahead of the front 
and some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible 
along and just ahead of the front. Periodic rain and thunderstorms
chances will continue into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday before 
the primary trough finally works its way eastward. 

Above normal temperatures look to return towards the end of the work 
week and into the weekend as ridge builds across the Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2019

Gusty winds up to 35 kts will persist through the afternoon,
weakening slightly this evening, though gusts up to 25 kts will
continue until the overnight. Once gusts taper off, low-level wind
shear is possible as winds at 2kft approach 45 kts out of the
southwest atop southerly surface winds. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop across the terminal sites overnight as
well, eventually working eastward by sunrise on Monday. At that 
time, VFR cloud bases will transition to MVFR ceilings as low-
level stratus forms over the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...Welsh