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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 181137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 426 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2019

Surface observations and satellite imagery show development of fog 
this morning, generally aligned with areas that received rainfall 
yesterday. Fog should dissipate as diurnal mixing establishes later 
this morning. Focus then shifts to later today and overnight with 
the potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms. Developing MCV 
in western Kansas will slowly work east this morning...nearing 
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by this evening. Activity along 
the forward flank of the feature will reinvigorate by this afternoon 
and enter the CWA near sunset. This first wave looks to fall apart 
shortly after entering the CWA, however, a second round associated 
with the MCV and surface low will move through during the overnight 
hours as the low-level jet strengthens over eastern Kansas and and 
western Missouri. This second wave will bear watching as we could 
see periods of heavy rain which could cause some localized 
flooding/flash flooding concerns. The good news is that much of the 
forecast area has been allowed to dry out Over the past week and a 
half and flash flood guidance supports this with over 2 inches 
needed in a 3 hour period to cause significant problems. Due to 
this, will be holding off on issuing a Flood Watch. That said...PWAT 
values near 2 inches and moisture surging into the area ahead of 
this system will allow for pretty efficient rain processes leading 
to some flooding issues, especially for urban centers. Thunderstorm 
chances will continue into Wednesday as we get some wrap-around 
activity on the backside of this system.

Weak ridging will build over the central conus behind this system 
Thursday and Friday with temperatures warming back into the 80s to 
near 90 by Friday. An active pattern will set-up Friday and looks to 
continue into next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2019

Shallow, patchy dense fog has developed this morning across
southern Missouri and has spread northward to impact the 
terminals. Visibility will improve as diurnal mixing commences 
later this morning. The shallow nature of the fog has allowed the 
observations to bounce quite a bit between VLIFR/IFR/MVFR.
Thunderstorm chances will increase by this evening and especially
after 04Z as a line of thunderstorms is progged to work into the
terminals by 09Z. Terminals could see some strong winds and
moderate to heavy rain as this line moves in. Showers and
thunderstorms look to continue through the remainder of the
prevailing period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...PPietrycha