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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 221142

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
642 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Issued at 323 AM CDT THU AUG 22 2019

Looks like a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity will linger 
into the daylight hours, but in general much of the stormy 
weather will be settling to the south today and tonight, leaving 
behind some lovely weather for late August.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a large ridge axis poking north 
into Canada from the Rocky's, with a synoptic level trough sweeping 
through the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Under the large trough, 
a cool surface high is advecting south across the Plains States, and 
will be responsible for the lovely temperatures that we will wallow 
in for the next few days. But, first we have to usher the current 
round of showers and thunderstorms from the region. 

For today...expect showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing this 
morning as a weak low level jet feeds moisture up and over the 
surface high that nosed into Kansas and Missouri yesterday. Coverage 
of the storms this morning looks to be a bit scattered in our 
section of Kansas and Missouri, as the better storms interacting 
with the nocturnal jet are located across southeastern Kansas and 
northeastern Oklahoma. Operational and CAM models indicate that the 
bulk of the storms from here on through the day will be south of our 
region, thus have trimmed POPs across the forecast area today and 
dropped the going Flash Flood Watch. 

The weather for the next few days will be rather nice as the 
seasonally cool surface high oozes across the region. However, we will 
have a chance of rain here and there, mostly focused on the morning 
periods as whatever version of the nocturnal jet impinges on the 
backside of the surface high late at night, generating 
thunderstorms. Next best chance for widespread stormy activity will 
arrive early next work week as a large trough digs into the Plains, 
sweeping a cold front through the region, which will keep
temperatures seasonally cool through next work week.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT THU AUG 22 2019

A variety of low CIGs from IFR to MVFR to VFR are spread across 
the state line terminals this morning. Expect CIGs to persist 
through the morning, with skies scattering out this afternoon. 
There is another chance for storms late tonight, but current 
thoughts are that the activity will likely stay well south of the 
terminals, so have only hedged for tonight with VCTS after