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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 201734

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Issued at 307 AM CDT WED MAR 20 2019

Mid level trough responsible for the off and on showers on Tuesday
and Tuesday night will move overhead this morning and race off to
the east by mid day. Northwest flow aloft will replace the passing
trough, which will lead to a calm weather day for Wednesday. Low
clouds will be tough to scour out in the post cold frontal regime,
but there's a chance we could see some scattering as early as mid
day. Expect northwest surface flow to continue through the day,
which will keep temperatures perhaps a little cooler than Tuesday,
especially, south of I-70, where temperatures on Tuesday pushed
the middle 60s. Should the cloud cover erode a little earlier in
the day than later there could be a run toward the 60s, but with
lingering clouds all day and that steady W/NW flow at the surface
expect middle to upper 50s. 

Expect the calm weather to continue through the late part of the
week, and into the early part of the weekend. For Friday a mid
level ridge will build into the central part of the CONUS, which
may bring our local temps into the upper 50s to perhaps middle
60s. The quiet pattern becomes a little more active through the
day on Saturday, as the mid level ridge gets replaced by SW flow
aloft and an encroachment of some modest low level moisture from 
the south. There's a bit of uncertainty how the second half of the
weekend into next week will play out. Both the ECMWF and GFS
indicate a pattern shift to more of a SW flow aloft within a
quasi-zonal flow pattern. ECMWF would paint a rather damp picture
for Sunday and Monday with constant fetch of moisture being fed
into the region through Sunday and Monday as a closed mid level
low carves into that quasi-zonal flow and glides through the 
southern Plains. While the GFS indicates a somewhat similar
pattern for Saturday and Sunday, with rain chances increasing
through the day on Saturday and lingering into Sunday, its much
stronger and progressive with the surface ridging which could cut
well into any forecast rain amounts during the period comprising
of Saturday through Monday. 

At any rate, both models then come into more convergence and
agreement for the middle part of next week, with the ridge
building back in for a couple days, before the next upstream
trough moves through. 


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2019

Current MVFR cigs should be replaced with mostly clear skies
within the next couple of hours. Models hint at one final wave of
stratus entering terminal space mid-evening into tonight, 
although confidence in scenario is low at this time.