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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 202035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
335 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

Message of the day: Oppressive heat and humidity are still
expected this afternoon, despite morning and early afternoon 
storms. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with heat indices
between 100 and 110 for those mainly along and south of the MO 
River. As for storms, they should continue weakening, with the 
entire area being dry by this evening.

The MCS that moved through northeast MO this morning pushed off to 
the east with the upper level shortwave supporting it. The 
convection stretching west to east along HWY 36 was a result of the 
outflow boundary of the morning system. This line has diminished 
significantly over the last hour and will continue to do so, with
the expectation that everyone should be dry by the early evening.
All of this convection has battled with the warm air advection 
moving in from the south. While temperatures have struggled to get
into the 90s, dew points are at oppressive numbers (mid to upper 
70s). This has resulted in heat indices ranging from 100-110, with
the exception of those in northeast MO where storms have had more
of an impact on both temperatures and dew points. The heat 
advisory was expanded earlier to include Atchison county MO and 
is in effect for counties southwest of a line from Atchison 
county MO to Howard county MO until 8 PM.

Tonight should be quiet, but another round of storms is expected in 
the morning as another shortwave trough moves into the area with a 
ramped up LLJ nosing into northeast KS and northwest MO. Right now 
it looks like storms won't reach our area until around sunrise. 
Storms will then spread east across northern MO throughout the 
morning. Those north of the MO River have the best chance to see 
storms tomorrow morning. Some storms in the morning could become 
strong, with strong winds and small hail being the main concerns. 
Additionally, a swath of 3-5 inches of rain fell today in northwest 
MO from Holt county over to Clinton county. Therefore, any 
additional rainfall tomorrow, especially with PWATs greater than 2 
inches, could create flash flooding problems. Wednesday afternoon, 
a deeper shortwave trough will move through the region as a cold 
front begins moving into the area. This will create storm chances 
across the entire area for Wednesday afternoon into the overnight 
hours. Again, strong storms are possible with wind and hail being 
the main concerns, as well as heavy rain. It is possible to see
widespread 1-2 inches of rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday 
with locally higher amounts possible. With that said, flash 
flooding could very well be a concern Wednesday night.

On/off storm chances will linger Thursday with us being somewhat 
smashed between surface low pressure and high pressure while upper 
level energy repeatedly moves overhead. For Friday through the 
weekend, there's a slight chance for some storms but everyone 
should be mostly dry.

Temperature-wise, Wednesday will still be a little muggy for those 
south of I-70 until the cold front pushes through. Then Thursday 
through the weekend much more comfortable temperatures are expected 
as high pressure kisses the area and shifts winds to the east. 
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are forecast initially with
temperatures warming into the upper 80s by Sunday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

Convection is the main concern for this TAF period, with a line of
storms hanging on along HWY 36. This is expected to slowly move
southeast/dissipate as the afternoon goes on. So far, visibility
has remained above 6 SM with ceilings still VFR. As of now, VFR
conditions are expected to remain for this TAF period. Things
should quiet down by the evening with clouds thinning out. Then
another round of convection is expected early Wednesday morning,
with the nose of the LLJ further west than this morning, making
northwest MO and northeast KS the initial target area. There is still
some uncertainty where exactly convection will initiate, but 
right now expect convection will be in the vicinity of STJ before 
sunrise and then the KC metro terminals after sunrise. Storm 
chances are expected to then continue throughout the day tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-011-020-021-
     028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Atkins