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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 211925
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
225 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 213 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2019

The main impact through the afternoon hours will be with continued 
gusty southwesterly winds up to 35 to 40 mph as low-level flow 
strengthens ahead of a surface low across western Kansas. Gusts will 
slacken slightly after sunset as mixing heights decrease, generally 
down to 20 to 25 mph. Gusty conditions will later taper off after 
midnight as the advancing surface low lifts into southeastern 
Nebraska. Deep mixing within the dry air mass, combined with warming 
surface temps into the low to even mid-80s will maintain an elevated 
fire weather danger, as relative humidity values linger in the low 
30 to 35 percent range, coincident with strong wind gusts. Outdoor
burning is thus strongly discouraged through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Light radar echoes are noted across central Missouri, though no 
precipitation is expected to reach the surface with high cloud bases 
and a substantial dry air mass in place below 500 hPa. Still 
expecting to see isolated to scattered rain showers and 
thunderstorms late tonight as a weak shortwave trough crosses over 
southeastern Nebraska atop the warm sector. Dry air may be difficult 
to overcome initially, and rainfall totals will remain on the meager 
side of things, generally less than a tenth of an inch throughout
the area. Some storms across far northwest Missouri may produce 
strong wind gusts at the surface with DCAPE values approaching 
800 J/kg as storms push through the area, compounded with existing
increased surface flow. As shallow low-level moisture fields 
increase Monday morning, stratus will continue to overspread the 
region, with resulting cooler surface temps expected for Monday 
despite ongoing warm advection. A cold front will slowly push 
through northwest Missouri Monday night, with additional rain 
showers and isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of the front. 
Forcing will be limited to convergence along the front as the 
shortwave trough is pushed well northeast, far displaced from the 
frontal boundary. The boundary will later stall across southern 
Missouri as a large mid-level trough deepens over the 
southwestern CONUS. The stalled boundary will serve as a focus for
additional precip chances in the Tuesday to Wednesday time-frame,
though no severe weather is expected during this time.

Temperatures will undergo a cooling trend from Tuesday to
Wednesday in the wake of the passing frontal boundary, to more
seasonal values. By the late week, southerly flow will return to
the area ahead of the next storm system, expected to impact the
area beginning as early as Saturday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2019

Gusty winds up to 35 kts will persist through the afternoon,
weakening slightly this evening, though gusts up to 25 kts will
continue until the overnight. Once gusts taper off, low-level wind
shear is possible as winds at 2kft approach 45 kts out of the
southwest atop southerly surface winds. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop across the terminal sites overnight as
well, eventually working eastward by sunrise on Monday. At that 
time, VFR cloud bases will transition to MVFR ceilings as low-
level stratus forms over the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh