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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 201133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 347 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019

The ongoing winter storm is beginning to wane as it quickly lifts 
off to the northeast. Radar returns and surface observations show 
light snowfall with periods of freezing drizzle along and north of a 
line from MHK to STJ to IRK. South of that line, precipitation has 
transitioned to a freezing drizzle with occasional snow flurries as 
cloud ice has been lost due to arrival of a mid-level dry slot. The 
remaining precipitation will gradually come to an end from southwest 
to northeast during the mid to late morning hours, with most of the 
forecast area free of wintry weather by lunchtime. That said, 
hazardous travel from the existing snow and ice will continue 
through the morning hours, especially on secondary roads and 
untreated surfaces. Therefore will keep a winter weather advisory 
for all areas through mid-morning to capture the remaining 
precipitation and hazardous conditions. 

The second half of today will be much more tranquil, and even the 
sun could make an appearance by mid-afternoon across eastern Kansas 
and western Missouri. With minimal cold air advection in the wake of 
this system, highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer today, 
even with snow cover, with most places reaching the 32-38 degree 
range. The warming trend will continue Thursday into Saturday with 
upper ridging building into the CONUS with highs pushing well into 
the 40s - and perhaps some 50s by Saturday. 

Model agreement continues to improve and tightly cluster on the 
track of the weekend storm system - at 18z Saturday the GFS, 
Euro, and Canadian have the H5 low within approximately 50 miles 
of each other. The track continues to favor a rain scenario for 
our area, with the potential for wrap around snowfall to clip 
northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas as the system departs. 
Cannot rule out minor snow accumulations in far NW MO. 
Additionally, moisture and instability will be on the increase 
ahead of the system, and a few thunderstorms are certainly 
possible with the dynamics/environment in place. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019

Expect final period of light snow and light freezing drizzle at
terminals now through mid-morning. Thereafter, expect ceilings and
visibility to greatly improve, with a return to VFR conditions by
mid-afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for 
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair