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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 241107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
607 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 410 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2019

Compared to the weekend, the work week is looking a bit quite, 
though it wont be totally dry.

Early morning satellite imagery shows a progressive pattern in place 
across the Nation with a notable trough sweeping east across the 
Plains States. A frontal boundary associated with the trough is 
roughly along I-35 across northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas 
early this morning, and is responsible for some showers bubbling up 
across southeast Kansas. Meso-analysis shows the surface front, and 
upper level features from the Plains trough, have bumped into bit of 
available moisture and instability that has advected back across 
eastern Kansas, ahead of the front, in the wake of the stormy 
activity that blew through Sunday. These storms will continue to 
slide east through the early morning hours along with the trough,
but should fade out as we get past sunrise. They are not expected
fill in much or last long. Otherwise, for Monday, it's looking 
like a really nice day to start the work week, as conditions will 
be dry and temperatures will range from the mid 70s to around 80 
by this afternoon. But, enjoy the day, as the rest of the week 
will remind everyone that it is summer; with hot, muggy conditions
expected.

Tuesday...will see temperatures bound back into the 80s as the cool 
surface high behind Monday's frontal passage gets swept away by 
southerly surface winds under a rather flat zonal pattern across 
the Plains. However, within that flat zonal pattern will be a 
small shortwave trough, that will top and rush past a shortwave 
ridge that will remain anchored over the Rockies at the start of
the week. This will result in a bit of forcing across northern 
Missouri into southern Iowa Tuesday afternoon into the evening as 
a weak frontal boundary gets dragged across northern Missouri. 
CAPE wont be a problem given the time of day and southerly surface
flow across Missouri, but shear is not looking very strong owing 
to the flat pattern. That said, if storms can put down a quick 
cold pool, the effective shear may allow an organized MCS to grow 
from the convection, sweeping southeast through the evening; which
is what several models are advertising. Damaging winds, and large
hail would be the primary severe threats, but with precipitable 
water values around 1.5 to 2 inches near the boundary, flash 
flooding will also be an issue. The mitigating factor here would 
be the residency time of the storms, as any activity Tuesday 
afternoon and evening currently looks progressive. 

Wednesday on through the rest of the work week will be hot and 
muggy. Afternoon temperatures will range through the 80s, hitting 
90s hear and there. There are some errant rain chances, but not much 
to focus on as an upper level ridge will prevail across the Lower
Missouri River Basin.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2019

MVFR conditions are prevailing at some of the terminals this 
morning, but wont last long as clear skies will quickly follow the
clouds into western Missouri. As a result, expect clear skies and
west winds through the day. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter