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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
899 
FXUS63 KEAX 261722
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019

A weak mid to upper level shortwave trough is currently going 
through the area along the backside of a building ridge over the 
Rockies. This will likely create cloudy skies for most of the day 
keeping temperatures in the upper 50s despite some WAA moving into 
the region. If enough sunshine does break out in the afternoon it 
could slip into the 60s downtown and further south along central 
KS/MO border. Ridging and upper strong WAA will push into the area 
Wednesday with winds shifting to the SW and increasing in the 
afternoon with gusts near 35mph.  This will allow us to quickly warm 
up to near 70s degrees and easily be the warmest day of the year so 
far. Due to drier conditions and RH values near 40 percent there 
could be some fire weather concerns in the afternoon in combination 
with the higher gusts. 

The upper level ridging will start to flatten out as a shortwave 
trough exits the central Rockies Thursday morning. This will help 
develop a low pressure system over central KS which will initiate 
some scattered elevated rain showers Thursday afternoon and 
eventually some light rain and drizzle as the lower levels saturate 
Thursday night into Friday. A jet streak and associated shortwave 
trough will increase lift along a semi-stationary warm frontal 
boundary over northern Missouri on Friday afternoon.  A decent LLJ, 
ample mid and upper level lift, and high PWAT values over 1" will 
lead to a possible moderate to heavy rain scenario along this 
boundary. Soundings indicate possible elevated convection and 
training storms with the storm motion parallel to the boundary. 
Guidance is indicating around 2" of rainfall over northern Missouri 
and unfortunately mostly over the Missouri River basin.  This could 
lead to river levels rising back up to moderate or even major flood 
stages by Sunday or Monday. Due to this having a convective element 
to it we will need to keep a close eye on where the QPF maximum will 
be going into the event to keep river forecasts accurate going into 
the weekend. The shortwave and low pressure system will shift 
eastward Saturday leaving behind a flow of colder air and well below 
average temperatures in the lower 40s for highs. Some rain snow mix 
can't be ruled out over northern Missouri Saturday morning either. 
High pressure and the colder airmass will stick around through 
Monday keeping us rather cool for the end of March and beginning of 
April. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019

VFR expected through the period. Southerly winds will become gusty 
by mid-morning Wednesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Blair