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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 202337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

Message of the day: Oppressive heat and humidity are still
expected this afternoon, despite morning and early afternoon 
storms. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with heat indices
between 100 and 110 for those mainly along and south of the MO 
River. As for storms, they should continue weakening, with the 
entire area being dry by this evening.

The MCS that moved through northeast MO this morning pushed off to 
the east with the upper level shortwave supporting it. The 
convection stretching west to east along HWY 36 was a result of the 
outflow boundary of the morning system. This line has diminished 
significantly over the last hour and will continue to do so, with
the expectation that everyone should be dry by the early evening.
All of this convection has battled with the warm air advection 
moving in from the south. While temperatures have struggled to get
into the 90s, dew points are at oppressive numbers (mid to upper 
70s). This has resulted in heat indices ranging from 100-110, with
the exception of those in northeast MO where storms have had more
of an impact on both temperatures and dew points. The heat 
advisory was expanded earlier to include Atchison county MO and 
is in effect for counties southwest of a line from Atchison 
county MO to Howard county MO until 8 PM.

Tonight should be quiet, but another round of storms is expected in 
the morning as another shortwave trough moves into the area with a 
ramped up LLJ nosing into northeast KS and northwest MO. Right now 
it looks like storms won't reach our area until around sunrise. 
Storms will then spread east across northern MO throughout the 
morning. Those north of the MO River have the best chance to see 
storms tomorrow morning. Some storms in the morning could become 
strong, with strong winds and small hail being the main concerns. 
Additionally, a swath of 3-5 inches of rain fell today in northwest 
MO from Holt county over to Clinton county. Therefore, any 
additional rainfall tomorrow, especially with PWATs greater than 2 
inches, could create flash flooding problems. Wednesday afternoon, 
a deeper shortwave trough will move through the region as a cold 
front begins moving into the area. This will create storm chances 
across the entire area for Wednesday afternoon into the overnight 
hours. Again, strong storms are possible with wind and hail being 
the main concerns, as well as heavy rain. It is possible to see
widespread 1-2 inches of rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday 
with locally higher amounts possible. With that said, flash 
flooding could very well be a concern Wednesday night.

On/off storm chances will linger Thursday with us being somewhat 
smashed between surface low pressure and high pressure while upper 
level energy repeatedly moves overhead. For Friday through the 
weekend, there's a slight chance for some storms but everyone 
should be mostly dry.

Temperature-wise, Wednesday will still be a little muggy for those 
south of I-70 until the cold front pushes through. Then Thursday 
through the weekend much more comfortable temperatures are expected 
as high pressure kisses the area and shifts winds to the east. 
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are forecast initially with
temperatures warming into the upper 80s by Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

Two distinct potential thunderstorm periods are on tap for the
upcoming 24 hour forecast. The first round will likely pick up in
intensity and coverage during the overnight hours, perhaps as
early as 09z to 10z, but more probably a little after that. Better
chances for scattered to widespread thunderstorms will be in
Kansas and Nebraska, but some of these storms may spread eastward
into NW Missouri. While there may be off and on showers through
the morning and perhaps early afternoon the next distinct chance
for showers and thunderstorms at the terminals takes place around
21z Wednesday afternoon/evening. Right now confidence in both
rounds of precipitaiton and the lull between these rounds are 
medium.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-011-020-021-
     028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Leighton