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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 202335

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Issued at 240 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2019

Low stratus has continued to shift southeast/dissipate, leaving 
mostly sunny skies over much of the forecast area, with temperatures 
gradually warming into the lower 50s. Skies should generally remain 
mostly clear through early evening, with attention focused on the 
next weak cold frontal passage and associated stratus potential for 
mid-evening into tonight. This frontal boundary is currently located 
over northern Iowa, and a band of low stratus is visible on 
satellite imagery immediately along and behind the wind shift. 
Models suggest stratus may fill in as the evening progresses, 
eventually cutting across the forecast area between 02-12z. That 
said, forecast confidence remains low in this scenario, so hedged 
with a blend in sky cover for tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through Friday night with seasonable 
temperatures as upper level ridging builds into the central CONUS 
ahead of the next weather system. The lead shortwave trough is 
expected to eject from the Four Corners into Iowa and become 
negatively-tilted over the weekend, with the upper pattern 
flattening in its wake, leading for additional weak waves. The 
takeaway from this pattern is that some uncertainty remains to the
exact track of the upper waves and their associated timing and 
strength. A signal for periodic chances for rain, including some 
elevated thunderstorms as instability increases with the approach 
of the ejecting shortwave trough, will exist from roughly midday 
Saturday into Monday. Total rainfall amounts through this multi-
day period will be highly dependent on any thunderstorm activity 
and its respective location(s) and intensity, but a general basin 
average of one-half inch with locally higher amounts seem 
reasonable at this time.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2019

A secondary cold front will move south over area terminals this
evening which will result in a wind shift towards the northwest. 
Greatest fcst uncertainty with this evening's package involves low
stratus possibilities after 04z. Latest satellite imagery 
suggests the bulk of MVFR stratus should remain off to the 
northeast, and because of this, have maintained a VFR fcst for 
now. Any stratus that does impact the region should clear towards
early afternoon as high pressure builds into the area.