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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 240823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 24 2019

A weak shortwave trough, really a northern extension of the main
upper shortwave over northern Mexico and southern TX, is helping
to keep light rain showers going early this morning. As that wave
slowly shifts to the east through the day, the showers should go
with it. But ample and deep moisture will keep cloud cover
lingering through most of the day, only moving out overnight. With
cloud cover and showers lingering into the afternoon, have lowered
temperatures some in our southeastern two-thirds of the forecast
area. Basically along and east of I-35. Tonight, as the clouds
move out of the area and high pressure moving into the resulting
in light winds, there is decent potential for fog development.
Aiding in this potential is the residual moisture from the
recently departed light rainfall. There is potential for dense fog
given forecast soundings, but how low visibility drops is bit
uncertain. So for now will carry a mention of patchy to areas of
fog and if any advisory is deemed necessary by later shifts, one 
can be issued. 

Another front will move through the area on Thursday. This will
likely result in several hours of gusty winds along and behind the
front during the afternoon. 

For Friday night into Saturday, models continue to show potential
for widespread precipitation. A shortwave trough will move across
NE and IA Friday night into Saturday, with its associated cold 
front trailing southward. Ahead of this wave, a strong low-level
jet will develop. This shortwave, aided by moisture advection with
the LLJ, may lead to a cluster of storms developing west-
northwest of the area. This cluster will track east with further 
development along the trailing cold front. The precipitation area 
should move into the forecast area after midnight Friday night and
be east of the area by Saturday afternoon. This may impact any 
outdoor event Saturday morning. Instability is rather weak with 
this system so despite decent shear, severe weather chances are 
low. And really, instability is weak enough that chances for 
thunderstorms is fairly low. So mainly just a nuisance morning 
rain. 

Early next week, models continue show reasonable agreement with
another shortwave trough tracking across the area Monday into 
Monday night. Instability may be a bit higher with this wave so
there is a better chance for storms. Still, the overall severe
weather threat looks low given the marginal instability and shear. 


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT WED APR 24 2019

MVFR ceilings will redevelop overnight as the current cloud bases
lower. Eventually, IFR ceilings are expected for several hours
late tonight into Wednesday morning. As drier air moves southward
Wednesday afternoon, cloud base will rise and eventually should 
scatter out. There is uncertainty regarding the timing of these 
transitions but the categories are expected. Winds will be light 
through the forecast. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB