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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 252018
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019

Weak boundary draped across eastern Nebraska eastward into Iowa will 
be the focus for convection this afternoon. Strong instability 
along and ahead of the front with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 kts 
will support storm organization and severe potential this afternoon. 
As of 230 this afternoon, storms initialized in eastern Nebraska and 
Iowa, along the boundary. Initial storms will be supportive of large 
hail, damaging winds and few tornadoes. The main uncertainty is how 
these storms evolve with time later this afternoon and this evening. 
With where the storms have developed, in a stretch for relatively 
strong easterly flow aloft, they should tend to propagate east to 
east southeastward. This motion will limit just how far south storms 
may get in our forecast area. Additionally, forecast soundings 
across the southern half of the forecast area show convective 
inhibition holding firm and not being overcome. This makes sense 
given the height rises and strong warm advection at the base of the 
elevated mixed layer. With all this in mind, have scaled back PoPs 
across the southern half of the forecast area this evening and into 
the overnight. If storms can develop further to the west southwest, 
over south central Nebraska and north central Kansas, storm motions 
would favor storms moving into east central Kansas and west central 
Missouri later this evening. 

Quieter weather is expected for the later half of the work week. 
There may be isolated to scattered, mainly diurnal showers and 
storms. But the chances for anything widespread look low at this 
point. Upper-level ridging will build across the eastern two-thirds 
of the country late in the week through the weekend. This will 
support temperatures warming into the upper 80s to middle 90s by 
Sunday. Humidity will also be relatively high so we'll see heat 
indices climb into the upper 90s across the area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019

A weak boundary is moving into southern NE and IA currently and
should settle into the four-state border area by this afternoon.
This boundary will be the focus for afternoon and evening storms.
The evolution of these storms is uncertain but confidence remains
low enough to not carry anything but VCTS through the terminals
this evening. It seems more likely that after storms develop along
the boundary, they'll track to the ESE across northern MO, not
necessarily through the terminals. Given this, have kept
conditions VFR at the terminals with some diurnal CU this
afternoon through tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB