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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 171724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1124 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2019

A wintry mix of light freezing drizzle and light snow is ongoing 
across much of the forecast area, with visibilities generally reduced 
to 2 miles or less. Untreated surfaces have become slick and 
hazardous travel conditions remain in place for untreated roadways.
The back edge of the wintry mix is currently situated near 
Topeka, with regional radar imagery and surface observations 
depicting a clear delineation of improving conditions. Expect this
edge of drier air to move eastward as the morning progresses, 
with widespread improvement between 15-18z. With the ongoing 
freezing drizzle and subsequent icy conditions, elected to extend 
advisory to 15z. Clouds are expected to hold in place today into 
Monday, and temperatures will do little to warm, with highs in the
20s and lower 30s both days. 

A welcome break in the wintry precipitation will be appreciated 
beginning later today and lasting for roughly 48 hours. Attention 
will quickly turn to a strong upper wave currently over the 
California coast as it amplifies and ejects into the Plains on 
Tuesday. Overall model timing and placement of key features are in 
relatively good agreement. Precipitation is expected to 
develop/arrive in the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and depart 
Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings suggest a profile below 
freezing, however the biggest forecast challenge is the duration of 
cloud ice present during the event. This will be a large factor in 
all snow versus freezing rain - or more likely a combination of 
both. Current thinking is for most activity to initially be in the 
form of snow, with a gradual loss of cloud ice from south to north 
Tuesday night. While the event is still several days away, with 
uncertainty to the exact type of precipitation and subsequent 
amounts, trends are certainly pointing in the direction of another 
accumulating winter weather event. 

Looking even further out, after a short break in the mid-week 
winter event, yet another strong upper wave is suggested to move 
into the area for next weekend, potentially bringing another round
of precipitation. Model spread exists with respect to the timing 
and track of the system - ample time to watch this evolve over the
week. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2019

The back edge of low-end MVFR stratus has eroded to the MO/KS
border this morning, and while the main shield will continue its
eastward erosion, broken stratocu with slightly higher but still
MVFR bases have started to fill in behind. KC area sites will
likely waver between BKN and SCT coverage for a few hours before
fully scattering out, so have started out with a tempo group to
cover the sub-hourly trends. Winds will remain out of the west
northwest, reaching speeds between 12-17 kts this afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ003-005>008-
     015>017-024-025-032-033-040-046.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Laflin