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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 250334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1034 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2019

Nearly zonal flow will fill into the region in the wake of the 
departing shortwave trough. There may even be some height rises 
through the day tomorrow, allowing temperatures to warm up into
the upper 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across
Nebraska tomorrow, with a weak frontal boundary moving into 
northern Missouri tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, an 
extremely unstable airmass will develop with MLCAPE values likely 
in excess of 3500 J/KG. There will also be about 25 to 35 kts of 
0-6km shear overtop this instability. Storms are expected to 
develop along the boundary during the afternoon hours and given 
the instability storms could quickly become severe. Initially, the
biggest concerns would be large hail and damaging downburst 
winds. With the marginal shear, there may be some supercell 
structures but we'll also have to monitor intense updrafts, given 
the extreme instability, on either the main boundary or any 
subsequent boundary. Storms should evolve into primarily a wind 
threat as a cold pool develops and pushes the complex of storms in
a generally southward direction. Additionally, localized heavy 
rainfall is expected. Precipitable water values will range from 
1.5" to 2". The greatest potential for flash flooding will be in 
the first several hours of storms, before a decent cold pool 
develops that accelerates storms southward. 

There should be, overall, quieter weather Wednesday through the end 
of the week. An isolated afternoon shower or storm can't be ruled 
out, but think we have a better chance of being dry so will keep 
PoPs around 10% or less. The bigger story, especially moving into 
the weekend and into next week, will be the warming temperatures and 
the humidity. Highs should start to climb into the lower 90s in 
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. At the same time, dewpoints 
will be in the upper 60s and may approach 70 degrees. So heat 
indices may become an issues this weekend and into next week, 
especially for how cool we've been so far this season.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2019

Low level wind shear will be a concern through the overnight
hours, but as the sun comes up and surface winds pick up the wind
shear concerns will decline. Occasional wind gusts to 20 kts will
be likely through the daytime hours before gradual declining of
winds around sunset. Storm chances for the terminals are pretty
low confidence at this time. Higher confidence for storms at KSTJ
than the KC Metro terminals. Model guidance is split at this time
for storms to make it as far south as KMCI/KMKC/KIXD, so will
mention VCTS for this forecast. As that time period approaches
confidence in impact at each terminal should get higher.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Leighton