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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 250349

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1049 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Issued at 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

Quite a little temperature gradient this afternoon as a small
dryslot allowed temps to warm into the lower 60s across southern 
portions of the forecast area, while upper 40s and low 50s 
dominate further north under a healthy veil of stratus. Upper- 
level low responsible for clouds and lingering shwrs this 
afternoon is clearly evident on available satellite imagery this 
afternoon as feature continues to track along the Iowa/Missouri 
border. High-res model guidance in decent agreement that lingering
light shwr activity will persist well into the event across 
northeastern Missouri before activity eventually comes to an end 
towards midnight. With abundant cloud cover anticipated overnight,
temps won't fall too much with lows Monday morning likely staying
in the lower 40s for most, with upper 30s possible across 
northeast Missouri. 

Sun lovers will likely have to wait at least one more day as
Monday is shaping up to be another cloudy day across the region as
added lift arrives from the northwest in the form of southeastward
moving shortwave trough. For now, model guidance is keeping the 
region dry thanks to dry advection from the northeast, however 
northeasterly winds and the aforementioned clouds will likely 
keep highs in the lower 50s Monday afternoon. Trends will begin to
improve following its departure Monday night as southerly flow 
returns to the area. This will coincide with rising height fields 
aloft as ridging across the western U.S. shifts east with time. 
This will allow temperatures to warm across the region midweek 
with upper 60s and maybe a few low 70s possible by Wednesday. 

Unfortunately, all good things have to come to an end however as
precipitation chances will increase beginning Wednesday night as a
western U.S. upper low begins moving east, and leeside low
pressure develops over the central High Plains. Quick look at the
low-level height pattern suggests the Gulf moisture will have
little difficulty lifting north with time as large-scale upper
ridging will dominate off the Southeast coast. This should set the
stage for several rounds of rainfall which should last through 
at least Friday night before the upper storm system finally 
shifts east with time. Along with the rainfall, models show weak 
to moderate levels of instability as far east as northern 
Missouri, suggesting convection will also be possible through this
period. Just how quick this feature moves out of the area remains
in question as the GFS appears to be the fastest, while the ECMWF
and Canadian want to show a slower progression, suggesting rain 
may continue through portions of the day on Saturday. In any 
event, there's plenty of time for models to come into better 
agreement, which will hopefully prove beneficial especially 
considering the ongoing and likely long-duration river flood 
impacts currently plaguing the region.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

Ceiling heights will continue to diminish overnight into the IFR
category early in the forecast period. IFR ceilings should persist
until Monday morning, at which point a slow improvement is
expected heading into the afternoon. VFR conditions will hold off
until around sunset Monday evening. May also see brief periods of
light drizzle tonight, with minor reductions to visibility