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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 230551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1251 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

Severe weather along with possible flash flooding will be the main
concerns heading into this evening and overnight...

Severe thunderstorm watch 426 now in effect for the western half
of our fcst area as dewpoints in the low- to mid 70s combined 
with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s, have led to rapid 
destabilizion across our area. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows an 
MLCAPE axis of 5000+ J/kg extending north across our region this 
afternoon, with some residual capping still noted across far 
northwest Missouri and east-central Missouri behind an outflow 
boundary from earlier MCS activity. Main limiting factor so far 
today has been a lack of synoptic-scale forcing, however regional
GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show a compact shortwave
trough lifting north through the southern Plains this afternoon. 
In addition, surface analysis shows main cold front slowly 
approaching our area from the northwest this afternoon, with
visible satellite clearly showing the aforementioned outflow 
boundary extending from near Liberty south through the Missouri 
Ozarks. These surface features, combined with the approaching 
upper shortwave, will be the focus for developing convection 
across western Missouri and eastern Kansas in the next hour or 
two. Fcst soundings show fat CAPE profiles through the vertical 
with high amounts of instability noted in the hail growth region 
which is most likely in response to nearly dry adiabatic lapse 
rates in the mid-levels resulting from a migrating EML plume 
which is now in-place over the central Plains and adjoining lower
Missouri Vly. This dry mid-level air will also support strong 
damaging wind gusts with storms that develop across the area later
this afternoon, which can be seen on latest SPC Mesoanalysis 
DCAPE fcsts which highlight 1000+ J/kg across portions of the 
area. While the tornado threat appears lower than the hail and 
strong wind threat, regions near residual boundaries will need to 
be watched closely as these areas often times support higher 
amounts of low-level vorticity generation.

After convection develops, its expected to slowly move from west
to east across the fcst area. Another concern heading into the
overnight period will be the possibility of heavy rain and flash
flooding as PWAT values increase to 2" across a large portion of 
the area. In fact, latest CIRA Advected Layered Precipitable 
Water satellite imagery shows a corridor of higher mid- and 
upper-level moisture heading north from the southern Plains this 
afternoon, which further supports the idea that rainfall overnight
can be very efficient with such a warm and moist airmass in-place
over the area. Combine this with wet soil conditions from heavy 
rainfall in previous days, we could be looking at an increased 
flash flood threat later tonight and early Sunday. As a result of 
these concerns, have elected to hoist another flash flood watch 
which will remain in effect through Sunday evening for the entire 
forecast area. 

Unfortunately, shower and storm activity will likely continue for
a large part of the day on Sunday as the main cold front finally
starts to move through the region. Severe wx will remain a concern
through the day thanks to abundance of instability thanks to such
a moist pre-frontal airmass. Fortunately, rain chances should
start coming to an end through the overnight hours into Monday
morning as the front starts clearing the area. 

Cooler and less humid air looks to finally move back into the 
area on Monday as region will reside in a post frontal airmass.
Some lingering shwrs and storms will be possible through the day
as instability type shwrs/storms may develop across northern
Missouri as main upper low passes to our north. Drier and less
humid air looks to then remain in-place through at least mid-week
as high pressure settles south over the area. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

Rain will persist across the terminals through much of the early 
morning hours. Expect we will have to chase TAFs a little given
the follow on rain and cloud cover through the day Sunday, as a
couple more rounds of storms are possible through this entire TAF
cycle. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter