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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 232027
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

As a shortwave trough heads northeast this eve, its associated 
lift will broaden and weaken, allowing showers currently moving 
into southwestern portions of the CWA to gradually dissipate as 
they spread northeast. Temperatures will remain nearly steady in
all but far northwest portions of the CWA under extensive cloud 
cover and light rain, then should rise into the upper 60s and 
lower 70s tomorrow afternoon under broad west southwest flow aloft
and with gradually clearing skies during the afternoon.

The upper low still spinning over the desert Southwest will slide
eastward through Friday, keeping all associated precipitation well
south of the forecast area. A shortwave trough to the north will
bring a weak cold front through the area Thursday afternoon or
evening; however most Gulf moisture will be wrapped into the
system to the south and little to no precipitation is expected
with the frontal passage.

Storm chances increase this weekend as a deepening surface low is
kicked out into the Plains by a progressive shortwave trough. The
surface low will likely remain north of the CWA; however warm
sector/LLJ precipitation is possible Friday night into early 
Saturday, then another round is possible along the cold front
later Saturday. Timing and position of the surface low/associated
boundaries will have to become more certain before severe risk can
be assessed.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

MVFR ceilings will likely persist for much of the period, with a
brief window of VFR ceilings tonight, before dipping back to MVFR
around midnight. Winds will remain generally light, out of the
northeast and east. Kept VCSH for KC Metro sites, given current
area of showers moving north out of southeastern Kansas. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Kurtz