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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 182328

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019

The multiple MCSs that pushes through the area this morning provided 
a slower start to heating and lowered the dewpoint temperatures 
leaving a much more stable environment this afternoon. We have 
recovered in temperatures, but the overall stability in the area 
looks to remain strong enough to keep convection from developing. 
The only real chance for possible storm initiation would be with the 
LLJ formation over central Missouri if the cap can weaken enough to 
get things going, guidance currently indicates that won't happen in 
our CWA but may closer to Springfield. Overnight the cold front to 
the north will move into our region providing a solid low cloud deck 
that may just keep our temperatures at bay for most of the region on 
Monday. The southern edge of this cloud deck looks to be south of 
HWY50 which would allow those counties to heat up and with the 
influx of higher dewpoints reach heat advisory criteria. If that 
cloud deck shifts north or south adjustments to the heat advisory 
may be needed to account for that.  

Tuesday upper level ridging moves into the area resulting in a 
southerly return flow at the surface. This will lift the clouds 
north and provide strong WAA and moisture advection into our area 
allow us to get into the mid 90s with HI values near 105 for most of 
the area south of HWY 36. Due to this a heat advisory has been 
issued from most of the area south of HWY 36 for Tuesday to include 
the KC Metro. This heat will be shortlived as a shortwave trough 
pushes through Wednesday morning ushering in a cold front with high 
pressure and cooler air on the backside. This boundary will stall 
over the area and provide widespread rainfall as a shortwave trough 
helps enhance elevated convection over the area. Model guidance 
starts to diverge in solutions for Wednesday night into Thursday as 
the ECMWF has this boundary stall further north while the GFS and 
Canadian models slide it to the south. If the boundary does stall 
then even more additional rainfall may occur and the overall total 
precip could get near the 2-3" range. If it does not stall and moves 
south then we will likely only get around an inch, so this is worth 
monitoring as we get closer to the even. Either way the area will be 
much cooler Wednesday through the weekend with high pressure and a 
cooler airmass in place. 


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019

VFR conditions are expected to start the forecast. Late tonight,
the combination of low to mid level moisture and light winds may 
lead to some low clouds and possibly some fog. Have maintained the
MVFR ceilings and added some reduced visibilities to the grids.
Conditions should improve late tomorrow morning and the afternoon.


KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-060.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060-

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ043-044-053-

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ011-020-021-