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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 181718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1118 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 317 AM CST MON FEB 18 2019

Another cool day expected as cold air advection continues upon 
northerly winds. While there are breaks in the clouds currently, 
still anticipate periods of stratus to redevelop/move back into the 
area as the day progresses, but could see a few periods of sunshine. 
Surface high pressure settles into the middle Missouri Valley 
overnight tonight, but overnight lows will be tempered some by cloud 
cover expected to be in place. Surface winds will gradually veer and 
become easterly by Tuesday morning. 

Confidence is increasing for widespread accumulating wintry 
precipitation beginning Tuesday evening as a large upper wave moves 
into the central CONUS. Models have hinted at more of a negatively-
tilted phase of this system compared to earlier runs. With deep 
saturation/lift, cloud ice is expected to be present during most of 
the moderate precipitation, and vertical temperature profiles do not 
show any warm layer above 0C, supportive of all snow for the large 
majority of the forecast area. Northern/far northwest Missouri is 
currently located in the ideal placement based on the anticipated 
track of the system, with the highest precipitation amounts and 
duration, along with higher snow ratios. Model ensemble and plume 
diagrams increase confidence for total snowfall to reach upwards to 
6" over this area, with lower snowfall amounts points south/east. 
All told, we are forecasting 4" or greater along a line from North 
Kansas City to north of Kirksville - with 2-4" elsewhere. Snow 
amounts are expected to be lesser over central Missouri where a mix 
of snow and freezing rain will be more probable, likewise ice 
accumulations of 0.05" will be possible. A Winter Storm Watch will 
be issued this package with the potential for heavy snow of 6" in 
far northwest Missouri within 36 hours. Travel across the entire 
forecast area is expected to become difficult/hazardous beginning 
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. 

Precipitation will come to an end mid-morning Wednesday, and just 
prior to this, cannot rule out some light freezing drizzle across 
much of the area as cloud ice is lost and saturation/weak low-level 
ascent persists. The system will quickly lift to the north in 
response to an amplifying longwave trough over the Intermountain 
West. Due to this, cold air advection is mitigated and temperatures 
will actually begin to moderate Wednesday into Saturday. Models 
continue to better align for another strong wave to move through the 
area this weekend, although the exact track remains uncertain. This 
track will be critical to determining whether this is primarily a 
rain or snow event, and subsequent forecasts will continue to fine 
tune these details. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST MON FEB 18 2019

MVFR stratus is beginning to erode both on the north and south
sides of the shield, and will likely scatter in and out for a few
hours before fully scattering out around 20z at all TAF sites.
Winds will be light and gradually veer from northwest to northeast
throughout the afternoon and evening, before becoming light and
variable tonight. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday 
     morning for MOZ001>005.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Laflin