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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 161946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2019

A pleasant afternoon characterized by sunny skies and above normal
temperatures in the middle 50s to near 60 is well underway. A 
weak shortwave trough will pass through Iowa this evening, with 
precipitation chances confined to areas north and east of the 
forecast area. The only noticeable difference will be a wind shift
out of the northwest, advecting cooler air and aiding in lowering
max temperatures on Sunday by 4-7 degrees. Quiet appreciable 
weather is expected tonight through Monday, outside of the 
ongoing/anticipated flooding along the MO River. 

Models remain in good agreement for the next weather maker to
arrive on Tuesday. Increasing warm air advection and large scale
ascent from a highly sheared upper trough dropping in from the
Northern Plains will generate widespread precipitation beginning
early Tuesday morning, with activity spreading from west to east
during the day, ending by late Tuesday evening. While there could
be a very brief window for a wintry mix of rain/snow at the onset
of precipitation across northern/northeast MO, the large majority
of this event will be in the form of rain. Rainfall amounts will
average between 0.25-0.50". Slightly cooler temperatures follow on
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds in, then a gradual
warming trend to end the work week as high pressure slides to the
east, and upper ridging builds into the area. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2019

VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy wind speeds this 
afternoon will gradually relax this evening with veering
direction.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair