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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 192319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019

A dry air mass continues to filter in from the north with dew point 
values currently in the low to mid 30s. Warming temperatures through 
the afternoon in the low to mid 60s with the much cooler dew points 
will maintain relative humidity values in the 30 percent range until 
surface temps cool this evening. Additionally, increased low level 
flow on the back side of a deepening trough over the southeastern 
CONUS and deep mixing through the afternoon has brought wind gusts up 
to 35 mph throughout the area. All said, there is an elevated fire 
weather danger today considering the above, thus outdoor burning is 
highly discouraged today, particularly for areas north of Highway 
36, where little rainfall fell Wednesday night.

A surface ridge axis will overspread the area tonight from the 
southwest, which will maintain cold advection until Saturday 
afternoon. This, combined with clear skies overnight will once again 
pull temps back into the lower 40s for most areas, and even upper 
30s across central to eastern Missouri.

The deepening downstream trough over the southeast has helped to 
amplify upstream ridging, which will advect overhead the local area 
beginning tomorrow. At the surface, warm advection will commence 
early Saturday afternoon and persist through early next week. 
Steadily warming surface temperatures are thus expected, eventually 
rising into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon. Models continue to hold off
chances for any precipitation until late Sunday night, possibly owing 
to the amplified ridging pattern, which will be slow to break down, 
initially. Thus for Easter activities, expecting dry conditions 
through the morning and afternoon and warming temperatures through 
the day. By Sunday evening into the overnight, expecting to see rain 
showers and embedded thunderstorms for areas north of I-70 as a weak 
impulse ejects off of a deepening mid-level trough over the 
southwest.

The GFS and ECMWF are beginning to align regarding the next round of 
precip chances beginning Monday into Tuesday. Both more or less depict 
a cut off low forming across the southwest, eventually pushing through the 
Southern Plains by Thursday. Weak disturbances ahead of this feature 
look to eject overhead as a cold front pushes through the local area 
early Tuesday. Resulting rain and thunderstorm chances will maintain 
a relatively active pattern from the early to mid-week time frame. 
Will need to monitor the potential for strong to severe storms to form 
ahead of the front, though timing of the front and wind fields aloft 
will influence the severity of developing storms, both of which currently
look unfavorable for significant weather. Warming temperatures are then 
expected late in the week as the end of April approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will 
remain out of the northwest over the next few hours but speeds
will gradually diminish, then direction will gradually back to the
west southwest through the night at speeds around 5 kts or less.
By mid- to late morning, winds will increase again to around 10-12
kts out of the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Laflin