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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 231943

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
243 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

Well, this morning's rain and thunderstorm activity has certainly
put a damper on the severe weather chances for later today as 
temperatures in the upper 60s and a large veil of clouds has 
squashed the recovery potential so far. Despite the fact that the
main cold front and upper trough still remain to our west, 
available high-res model guidance has been insistent that only 
isolated convection will be possible later this afternoon and 
evening. Based on these trends, have trimmed back on pops for this
afternoon and evening, with the idea that any convection that 
does form will be of the non-severe variety. This agrees well 
with the latest SPC Day 1 outlook which has removed all severe 
probabilities from our area. In any event, expect isolated 
activity this evening and overnight as the main cold front begins 
working into our area from the west, with this activity gradually 
tapering off towards sunrise. In all honesty, we wouldn't be 
surprised if many areas remain dry overnight, which will certainly
be welcomed following Friday and Saturday's heavy rain. 

Monday will spell welcomed relief for many as dry weather should
persist through much of the day. While we cannot rule out a
possible light shwr across northern Missouri Monday morning with
the departing wave, rain chances should decrease by early afternoon
as subsidence overspreads the area. With drier air moving in as
well, Monday should shape up to be a very pleasant day with highs
topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dry weather looks to
continue though Tuesday morning before the next chance for 
shwrs/storms arrives by afternoon as a shortwave embedded in 
west-northwest flow approaches the lwr Missouri Vly. This feature 
will help send a frontal boundary south from central Iowa, which 
should help focus renewed storm chances Tuesday afternoon and 
evening. Shear profiles look marginally supportive of severe
storms, but with CAPE fcsts suggesting MLCAPE values in excess of
4000 J/kg, model treads will have to be monitored in the coming
days for sure. 

Beyond this, models show another warm front lifting north through
the area on Wednesday with warm temperatures expected for the
latter half of the work week as southerly flow becomes better 
established. This should allow temperatures to warm back into the 
upper 80s to lower 90s later this week with high amounts of 
moisture allowing for afternoon shwr and storm activity just about
every afternoon through the upcoming weekend. 


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

Lingering MVFR and IFR cigs prevailing over the region this
afternoon, on the backside of a convective storm complex that 
continues to move through central and eastern Missouri. This 
cloud cover has definitely halted the destabilization process so 
far today, and latest high-res model solutions suggest only widely
scattered shwrs/storm development later this afternoon and 
evening. Based on these trends, have trimmed back on the TSRA 
mention for this afternoon as confidence in redevelopment remains 
pretty low given the above mentioned factors. In any event, 
models do show some activity possibly reaching area terminals 
after the 02z time frame and have inserted a VCTS mention to 
address this possibility. Aside from that, expect winds to veer to
the south this afternoon and eventually to the northwest 
overnight as main surface low and associated front move through 
the region. Skies should return to VFR later this afternoon with 
cigs eventually clearing towards daybreak as drier air begins 
moving into the area.