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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 220416

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1116 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Issued at 312 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2019

Tranquil weather continues this afternoon with sunny skies, light 
northwest winds, and temperatures in the 50s. Surface high pressure 
will slide to our southwest tonight, with upper level ridging 
gradually building in from the central Plains on Friday. This will 
continue the pleasant weather to end the work week, with highs in 
the 50s to middle 60s tomorrow afternoon and mostly sunny skies.

More active weather is expected for the weekend as a lead shortwave 
trough ejects from the Four Corners into Iowa and becomes 
negatively-tilted. Areas of showers will slowly spread from west 
to east during the day on Saturday, with more widespread 
precipitation expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning as 
the surface low tracks into southeast Nebraska. Instability looks 
fairly marginal at this time, but enough may be present for a few 
embedded thunderstorms on Sunday. Total rainfall amounts over the 
weekend will be highly dependent on any thunderstorm activity and 
its respective location(s) and intensity, but a general basin 
average of one-half inch with locally higher amounts are expected 
over northwest Missouri into northeast Kansas, with lesser amounts
points south and east. 

Cooler weather advects into the area Monday and Tuesday as high 
pressure builds into the Great Lakes with slightly below normal 
temperatures. Strong southerly flow will develop ahead of the next 
upper trough, with an increase in warmth and moisture. Highs by next 
Thursday may reach the 70 degree mark, potentially our warmest day 
in months, along with a chance for thunderstorms. 


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2019

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period as a
surface ridge advances eastward. Cloud cover will later build 
over the area early Saturday ahead of the next storm system.