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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 190802
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 302 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2019

Satellite imagery this morning shows a low amplitude pattern in 
place across the Nation, with a trough sweeping east across the 
Great Lakes and a modest ridge axis poking north across the Rockies. 
This has left a bit of a weak surface high sliding across the Plains 
under a shallow northwest flow late in the weekend.  And, as this 
high slides to our east today, southerly winds and synoptic level 
height gains all point at afternoon highs bounding back into the 
upper 80s and lower 90s today, and maybe a little hotter Tuesday. 
Combining that heat with the resent rains and resulting surface 
moisture, and heat indices will likely range around 105 degrees 
today and Tuesday. Worst of today's heat may stay south of the 
Missouri River, but will likely expand north into Tuesday. Plan on 
leaving the current Heat Advisory as is for today and Tuesday. 

However, heat isn't the only weather issue to watch over the next 
few days, as more nocturnal storm activity, and an eventual weak 
frontal passage, will bring some potential for rain. Monday night 
into Tuesday morning will see another chance for a MCS to develop 
and roll across the Plains States, with current expectations for 
that to occur across eastern Nebraska into Iowa early Tuesday 
morning on the nose of the nocturnal jet. Better, widespread chance, 
for rain will settle south into eastern Kansas and Missouri late 
Tuesday night through Wednesday, as the northwest flow pushes a weak 
frontal boundary south across the region, This activity may linger 
well into the daylight hours of Wednesday, but at a minimum will 
knock temperatures back down for the later half of the work week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2019

VFR conditions will dominate the majority of this TAF cycle. Only
issue may be some MVFR CIGs and or VIS during the morning hours,
and confidense is not overly high that the clouds will develop. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening 
     for KSZ057-060.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening 
     for MOZ043-044-053-054.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ011-020-021-
     028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter