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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 200919
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
419 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019

Downstream trough currently located over the Ohio River Valley will 
continue to slowly translate eastward before stalling over 
central Appalachia Sunday. This will place the central conus under
broad ridging today with surface flow gradually veering back to 
the south. Gusty winds will stay off to the west over central 
Kansas this afternoon where strongest pressure gradient will be 
focused in response to deepening lee-side trough. This will make 
for a pleasant day across the area as temperatures should easily 
climb into the mid and upper 70s under sunny skies. Breezy south 
winds return for Easter Sunday but it will still be a great day 
for activities as temperatures nudge back into the 80s. 

A cold front will near the region late Sunday into early Monday. 
Ahead of this front, increasing warm air advection and increasing 
low-level moisture will help to increase instability across Kansas 
and western Missouri. Warm, dry air in the 850-700mb layer will 
effectively cap any convection chances across western and central
Missouri Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours. May see 
some thunderstorms break out along the frontal boundary across 
central Kansas during the afternoon in the area of greatest 
instability and the best chances of being able to overcome the 
cap. If storms are able to initiate, a few strong to severe storms
may be possible. As the surface trough and associated cold front 
push east late Sunday, and lower levels cool, we should see more 
activity develop along the cold front. Models have been in pretty 
good agreement will bringing showers and thunderstorms into 
northeast Kansas and western Missouri by early Monday morning. The
cold front looks to slow and possibly stall and begin to wash out
across southern Missouri by midweek. If this happens, scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday before 
precipitation chances shift south and east of the forecast area 
for Thursday and Friday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light west
northwest winds will gradually back to the southwest this morning,
then will begin to increase to around 10-12 kts by 18z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pietrycha
Aviation...Laflin