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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 221759
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1259 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

Focus for this mornings forecast is once again on the potential for 
severe weather and flooding as it looks like more storms will 
develop this afternoon, persisting through the overnight hours. 
But, stepping back to look at the big picture; in general we will 
remain in an active pattern through much of the next 7 days as the
large synoptic level trough to our west will continue to reload 
and eject shortwave troughs across the Plains States; the 
resulting push and pull of moisture and temperature advection will
keep the storms coming. 

For today...the shortwave trough that brought Monday night and 
Tuesday's rain, and severe weather, will continue to move north 
today, leaving behind sunny skies and gusty south winds for the day. 
This will help lift temperatures back up into the 70s, and 80s for 
parts of central Missouri. However, those same gusty, warm south 
winds will also help bring moisture back from the Gulf, and will set 
the stage for more storms this afternoon and this evening as a warm 
front like feature sets up across the state. 

CAMs and operational models all point at moisture transport ramping 
up by the early afternoon, with the convergence from southeast 
Kansas into central Missouri sparking storms between 3 and 5 PM. 
Additionally, this transport will result in a quick increase in CAPE 
values by the afternoon hours, with all the operational models 
advecting in values of 1500 J/KG; at a minimum --most are much 
higher--. And, these highly unstable conditions will arrive in an
environment with northeast oriented 0-3KM shear vectors of 30 to 
40 knots, and 0-6km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range; all due to 
the strong 850mb jet in under the prevailing 300mb jet stream. Add
in precipitable water values that will be in the 1.5 inch range, 
and greater, by this afternoon, and we have the stage set for all 
modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging winds, isolated 
tornadoes) along with flash flooding overnight as rain fall rates 
will likely be rather high with the strongest storms. Areas most 
at risk from both the severe and flash flooding threat currently 
look to be south of Highway 50 this afternoon, but we will need to
watch for strong storms and any indication in predictive models 
that the convergence zone sets up any farther north this 
afternoon. Expect the severe threat to be highest in the afternoon
to evening hours as shear does begin ease up a bit and shift 
north as the jet stream at 300mb begins to buckle and shift while
the 850mb jet ease a little late at night. However, storms will 
likely persist through the night along the weakening convergence 
boundary, and the shear might not drop off fast enough to preclude
severe well into the overnight hours. Storms may persist through 
sunrise Thursday; and with a lot of antecedent rain across the 
area, the potential for flash flooding will likely last through 
sunrise Thursday. Thus, have issued a Flash Flood Watch for 
several of our counties from eastern Kansas into central Missouri
for 00Z Thursday through 15Z Thursday. 

Next chance for storms after Thursday morning wont wait long as the 
prevailing southwest flow looks likely to get activity going along 
an axis from central Kansas into central Iowa, clipping the far 
northwest corner of Missouri, Thursday night into Friday morning. 
The axis then looks to shift a bit south into eastern Kansas and 
Missouri for Friday and Saturday. So, it does not look like the 
stormy activity is coming to an end any time soon.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

VFR conditions are expected across the area, though, a brief
period of lower ceilings and visibility are possible with storms 
that move through. Storms are expected to develop after 21Z and 
move northeast mainly along and east of a line from Kansas City to
Kirksville. Storms are expected to stick around through much of 
the night, especially in the southern half of MO and KS. A cold 
front like boundary will move through as well overnight, shifting 
winds to the northwest and eventually to the east. Late tomorrow 
morning, another round of showers could move through the area, 
though it is not clear where exactly it will set up. Current 
thinking is areas south of I-70 have the greatest chance. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday 
     morning for KSZ060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday 
     morning for MOZ045-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Grana