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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 190852

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
352 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Issued at 352 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019

Atmosphere is saturating from the top down this morning, but dry 
air at the lower levels is preventing rain from reaching the 
ground. Forecast skew-Ts are indicating drier air will erode by 
sunrise and areas of light to occasional moderate rain will spread
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Warm air advection and
ascent out ahead of weak low pressure over western Kansas will 
create enough lift to produce rain for most of the morning. By 
early afternoon, a majority of precipitation will push north into 
Iowa providing a brief break until the aforementioned surface low 
and cold front arrive with the second round rain arrives by early 
evening. Eventually, the system exits the area near sunrise 
Wednesday morning, taking the precipitation with it. However, 
overcast skies will linger during the morning hours and eventually
clear west to east during the afternoon. 

High amplitude upper level ridge builds into the central US 
Thursday and Friday. Warm up begins slowly on Thursday with highs
in the mid-upper 50s, however, by Friday, highs should reach the 
low-mid 60s. Clouds increase on Saturday as the next upper level 
trough and a series of shortwaves increase rain chances and 
possibly thunderstorms late Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday. 


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019

VFR conditions will start the night, but clouds and rain are
expected to spread across the region early Tuesday morning. CIGs
are not expected to drop into the MVFR range till the late
afternoon, though that will need watched due to the expected rain
in the morning. Otherwise, expect winds to turn to the southeast
for the day Tuesday, likely swinging back to the west or 
northwest as a cold front moves through tomorrow evening; just 
past the end of this TAF cycle.