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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 230931
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
431 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 431 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

It's going to be another stormy day across eastern Kansas and 
Missouri as morning storms fade into afternoon and evening storms. 
However, the good news is that the primary trough driving much of 
the this activity over the past few days, and currently sweeping 
through the Rockies, will finally start to fill and shift into the 
Plains States; taking the focus for storms off our section of the
country by Monday, and providing at least a few days to dry out.

Attention this morning is on the stormy activity across Kansas and 
Oklahoma early this morning, as it will be these storms that effect 
our Sunday morning, and set the stage for another round of storms in 
the afternoon and evening hours. CAM, operational, and ensemble 
models continue to struggle with predictability given the high 
instability and variable shear environment that has dominated the 
Plains in recent days, and today's forecast is not much better. RAP 
continues to seem to have the best handle on activity, as it is 
initializing rather well vs radar returns, and is not killing off 
convective features right away like many of the CAM's. Thus the RAP 
has been leaned on heavily for today's forecast. 

This morning...the jet ahead of the western trough, along with the 
nocturnal enhancements, will continue to feed the storms across 
Kansas into western Missouri. Meso-analysis and Satellite imagery 
show this has sparked another round of storms across central Kansas. 
with this line of storms pushing east quickly this morning,  
producing strong winds along I-70 in central Kansas. We do expect
the storms to move east into Missouri this morning, likely taking
a bit of a right turn to the east southeast as the storms follow 
the better moisture transport and instability gradient, as our 
Saturday night storms did leave a lack of instability across 
northwest to north central Missouri for the early morning hours. 
Still, areas from Kansas City south might still have strong to 
severe storms move through this morning around, to an few hours 
after, sunrise; with damaging winds and flash flooding from 
torrential rain as the primary threats. Hail is possible, but not 
likely to be large this morning. 

For the afternoon hours, details are a bit hard to pin down as they 
will likely depend on this mornings activity, but the idea for the 
afternoon is that a cold front, currently running north-south across 
central Kansas, will act as a focus early this afternoon for another 
round of storm development as the primary western trough moves into 
the Plains, allowing the strong diffluent jet to spread over the 
surface front. This should get another round of storms going in 
central Kansas by 19Z to 21Z, with activity moving east to the 
Kansas-Missouri border by 23Z to 01Z. Afternoon activity will have 
all the instability and shear needed for strong to severe storms, 
with large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding being our primary 
threats; but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out given the 
turning in the winds as the trough moves into the Plains. As a 
result, expect severe weather this afternoon and will keep the 
Flash Flood Watch going as is for today and tonight. 

Otherwise, for the coming work week, Monday will be a nice day after 
the wet weekend, but the heat and humidity will return in earnest 
Tuesday. There is an errant chance of rain Tuesday night, but 
otherwise the coming work week looks simply looks hot and muggy.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

Rain will persist across the terminals through much of the early 
morning hours. Expect we will have to chase TAFs a little given
the follow on rain and cloud cover through the day Sunday, as a
couple more rounds of storms are possible through this entire TAF
cycle. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter