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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 231114

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Issued at 420 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

Satellite imagery this morning continues to show a large trough over 
the intermountain west; which has been responsible for the stormy 
weather of late as it ejected shortwaves across the Plains. And, the 
short version of the forecast is that this pattern will persist 
through the end of the work week and the holiday weekend, keeping 
the threat of storms coming. 

Long version of the forecast...continues to be defined by the large 
trough to our west; at least through the weekend. Temperatures will 
generally be around to above normal as the southwest flow under the 
trough out west will keep southerly winds blowing across the region. 
However, under this same southwest flow a weak frontal boundary will 
continued to wallow around, which has been, and will continue to, 
interact with any shortwave ejected by the western trough in the 
days to come. Stepping back to look at the moisture feed; a high 
pressure ridge across the Deep South has pushed a lot of the western 
Gulf moisture onshore, with LPW satellite imagery really 
highlighting this. While last nights storms did help clear some of 
the moisture from the atmosphere, the persistent south winds will 
bring that moisture rushing back later today. And, with precipitable 
water values of 1.5" just to our south, we can expect values of 1.5" 
to 2" to prevail across the region by tonight. 

Today and Tonight...We should get another daytime break from the 
storms, with temperatures spread through the 70s; but it looks like 
storms will return tonight, which will bring a quick return of 
flooding concerns. Next shortwave to eject from the southwest will 
start today; with the associated leeside low already seen across 
northern Texas. This will spark storms again today across central 
Kansas as a warm front lifts back to the north this afternoon; with 
storms spreading northeast across northeast Kansas and northwest to 
north central Missouri through the evening and overnight hours. 
Storms might be on the decaying side as they approach northeast 
Kansas, as they move away from the best instability, but there looks 
to be more than enough shear (0-6KM > 50 knots, among other shear 
parameters) to warrant keeping a careful eye on storms that move 
through northwest Missouri. As such, thoughts are that large hail 
and damaging winds are the big threats as storms move into later 
tonight, but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. 
Additionally, with the high precipitable water values, we can 
expect river and stream flooding to be an issue, along with flash 
flooding. Will let the day shift try to pin down where any Flash 
Flood Watch may be needed for tonight.

Friday into the weekend...will see the parade of storms continue. 
It's likely that the day Friday will once again be mostly dry, 
though a few showers from Thursday nights storms may linger across 
the region into the morning, and we can't rule out some afternoon 
activity bubbling up, but the best chances for storms looks to 
arrive again Friday night into Saturday as western trough starts to 
fill and eject a significant portion of itself across the Plains 
States. This will result in periods of severe storms and flooding 
rain Friday night into Saturday morning, with another round expect 
Saturday night into Sunday. We might get a little bit of a break 
from the storms by Monday, but expect more stormy activity Tuesday.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

VFR conditions will great the terminals this morning, but we do
expect MVFR CIGs to sweep back in from the south by noon, with
more thunderstorms expected to sweep through northwest Missouri
overnight. Much of the activity should be north of the Kansas City
terminals tonight, focused near KSTJ, but we will need to watch
for storms none the less.