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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 171120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2019

Weak frontal boundary still positioned across the area, generally 
along the Interstate 70 corridor. A few light rain showers have 
worked their way north into west-central Missouri early this morning 
with more widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing further south 
across southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, and northeast 
Oklahoma. This activity is associated with shortwave trough working 
eastward through generally zonal flow. Cloud cover from this feature 
may linger into the afternoon hours, which may reinforce the 
quasi-stationary boundary, but will also limit instability. 
However, we could see some isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms develop along and south of the boundary later this 
morning and into the afternoon as the shortwave trough lifts 
north. Limited instability and lack of flow will keep any 
thunderstorm activity below severe limits. 

On Tuesday, an upper level trough will translate west over the 
intermountain west while a surface low deepens over the southern 
High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the 
surface low and along the associated cold front Tuesday 
afternoon. CAM models have storms igniting across central Kansas 
and then quickly merging and diving southward into Oklahoma 
Tuesday evening. The eastern edge of this line may graze portions 
of western Missouri but the main severe threat looks to remain
west of the forecast area. Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 
inches suggest efficient rain makers with any thunderstorm 
activity as the front pushes through eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. 

The relatively active weather pattern will continue through the 
upcoming weekend with several more rounds of showers and 
thunderstorms possible. Temperature-wise...we are looking to stay 
slightly below normal to near normal for the remainder of the work 
week with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2019

MVFR and low VFR cigs have pushed into several terminals from the
south ahead of ahead of showers and thunderstorms ongoing across
southwest Missouri. This activity will work northeastward with
time with ceilings expected to improve by mid to late morning.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through 00Z and should generally stay south and east of the
terminals. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...PPietrycha