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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 182022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

500-hPa trough axis currently moving through the region with
widespread rain shwr activity noted to our west across central
Kansas, with additional activity seen further east across eastern
Missouri. For the most part, our region should remain dry this 
afternoon as bulk of activity slides to our west, however have
kept a slight chance mention going across our west just in case a
few rogue shwrs do in fact move into our region. Other than that,
quiet wx will be the name of the game late this week and through a
good portion of the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds into
the region. Temperatures should begin moderating tomorrow as highs
will each well into the lower to middle 60s, with low to mid 70s 
expected by Saturday. With upper-level ridging temporarily 
building in by Sunday, highs on Easter could easily warm into the 
middle to upper 70s.

Fcst models this afternoon have offered a slight delay in the next
storm system's arrival time, with most now holding off
precipitation until Sunday evening/early Monday at the earliest.
This will occur as a frontal boundary stalls just north of our
region and an upper-level wave slowly ejects out of the southern
Rockies. Unfortunately, this boundary looks to make little
progress through early next week, which combined with the slow
movement of the aforementioned upper storm system, will set the
stage for reoccurring shwrs/storms through at least early
Wednesday. With decent moisture return expected out ahead of this
system expected to result in abundant cloud cover, the degree of 
destabilization looks to be fairly low each afternoon, suggesting
widespread severe weather shouldn't be too much of a concern. 
This system looks to exit stage right on Wednesday with a more 
settled pattern expected through the duration on next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

VFR conditions will dominate through the fcst period with VFR
stratus centered between around 4 kft eventually giving way to 
mostly clear skies during the early morning hours. Gusty north 
winds this afternoon will begin to tapper off this evening before 
picking up once again after sunrise. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32