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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KEAX 181133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2019

Water vapor imagery with 1.5PVU pressure overlaid shows the winter 
storm that will affect the region moving through the Great Basin. 
At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes and lee troughing 
in the central High Plains has resulted in generally light southeast 
winds. As the day progresses, the upper wave will make steady 
eastward progress, deepen the lee side trough and shift the low into 
Oklahoma. This will push an inverted surface trough into the area 
that will eventually shift southward, shifting winds to north, and 
allowing very cold air to drain into the region. During the day 
today, the transition line should be just north of the Missouri 
River by the afternoon hours. As the cold air deepens and advects 
into the forecast area, this line will track to the south so that by 
midnight, most of the forecast area will have transitioned to snow. 
Winds will increase as the surface low tracks to the south of the 
forecast area and the pressure gradient tightens. With the cold air 
deepening, snow ratios should increase and the nature of the snow 
will become fluffier. With the winds potentially gusting in the 35 
to 40 mph range, this will likely lead to blowing snow, further 
reducing visibility. 

Regarding snow amounts, the main change was to increase amounts 
some, mainly in our northeastern quadrant of counties. With around 
6 inches forecast and the combination of wind leading to blowing 
snow, will upgrade the winter storm watch area to a winter storm 
warning. Other, amounts through the KC metro look on track with 2 to 
4 inches expected in a south to north gradient. 

Overall, the system looks to be rather quick-hitting, with
snowfall winding down by Saturday afternoon in our eastern zones.
Have kept the ending times of the winter weather advisory and
warning the same since there could be blowing snow persisting into
the afternoon, despite the precipitation exiting. But later shifts
can assess the end times of the headlines in later forecast and
refine them as needed. 

Another storm may affect the region in the middle of next week, 
Tuesday into Wednesday. At the moment, this system looks progressive 
and while it may produce snow, its progressive nature should limit 
accumulations. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2019

IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility will persist this morning 
ahead of winter storm expected to affect the region later today 
through Saturday morning. Light southeast winds this morning will 
increase and begin to back to the east and eventually northeast 
this evening. Winds will begin to gust to 30 to 35 kts as the 
winds shift to the northeast. The transition from rain to snow 
will be over the KC area this afternoon but by midnight will have 
shifted south such all terminals will be seeing snow and blowing 
snow. Light snow and blowing snow will persist through the end of 
the forecast with conditions improving after sunrise Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST 
     Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon CST Saturday for 
     KSZ025-102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST 
     Saturday for MOZ021-028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon CST Saturday for 
     MOZ001-002-011-012-020.

     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST 
     Saturday for MOZ003>008-013>017-022>025-031>033.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB