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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Duluth, MN (DLH)

                            
594 
FXUS63 KDLH 170045
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
745 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

A line of showers and thunderstorms were percolating over
southeast Sawyer and northern Price county at this moment. This
activity was occurring along a tongue of SBCAPE to 2500 J/kg. The
CIN has been increasing in this area the last few hours, while the
upper level support is beginning to drift off to the east. Will
see this activity diminish over the next few hours with the
continued loss of upper level support, diurnal heating and 
increasing CIN. Made some changes to account for this activity as 
well as other minor tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over Price county 
and adjacent areas in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and early 
evening, forming along a weak convergence boundary. This convective 
activity will diminish with the loss of daytime heating later this 
evening. Otherwise, dry and mostly clear skies are expected across 
the region. Some patchy fog is expected to develop once again 
tonight, with dew point depressions decreasing as the temperatures 
fall. Current GOES-16 satellite imagery shows a plume of smoke from 
Canadian wildfires, stretching from the western Dakotas northeast 
towards southern Manitoba and southwestern Ontario, which will 
slowly dive southward across northern Minnesota overnight. To 
account for this, we have added some patchy smoke mention to our 
forecast. This smoke could linger over the region through the day 
Friday.

During the day Friday, the main area of focus for precipitation is 
over the Minnesota Arrowhead region, where the high-resolution 
models are indicating some light rain showers forming along the lake 
breeze boundary and a weak mid-level shortwave impulse. Models are 
indicating only very light amounts of QPF possible with these 
showers, up to five-hundredths of an inch. Elsewhere, mostly sunny 
skies and dry conditions are expected. Winds will again remain light 
through much of the day with high pressure in the vicinity of the 
region. The strongest winds are expected along the South Shore due 
to on-shore northeasterly flow, with gusts approaching 10 to 15 mph 
near the Port Wing, Bayfield, and Ashland areas. Lows tonight will 
range from the lower 50s over northwest Wisconsin to the middle to 
upper 50s over northeast Minnesota. Highs Friday will warm into the 
lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Seasonal temperatures are expected for the long term with a 
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

Quasi-zonal flow will be in place across the Northern Plains, 
Canadian Prairies, and the Upper Midwest Friday evening. A few 
subtle vorticity maxima and a weak shortwave continue to be 
present in the GFS guidance Friday night. Think there is a very 
small chance of a few showers or storms as these features slide 
eastward near the international border. Have kept the forecast 
dry for now. All models are dry during that timeframe, but the 
extra lift from the falling heights may be enough to touch off a 
shower or storm.

Surface high pressure will slide east of the Northland on 
Saturday with a southerly return flow forecast. Temperatures will
trend warmer with highs in the low to middle 80s, except in 
northeast portions of the Arrowhead where a lake breeze will limit
temps to the low 70s. A cool front will slide into the area and 
stall out over the Northland Sunday. The front will provide a 
focus for shower and thunderstorm development during the day. 
Temperatures to the north of the boundary will be in the middle 
70s with low 80s to the south. The slow movement of the front 
raises the potential for locally heavy rain with the 
thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall parameters aren't especially 
strong, so have opted to leave any mention of heavy rain out of 
the HWO and forecast for the time being. We will need to re- 
evaluate tomorrow and Saturday. Rain chances continue into Monday 
as the front slides farther east and surface low pressure takes 
shape over the middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures for the 
start of the work week will trend a bit cooler, with highs in the 
upper 60s to low 70s.

Slow-moving high pressure returns to the picture from Monday 
night through Wednesday with quiet conditions the norm. 
Temperatures will slowly creep warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, 
reaching the middle 70s to around 80 degrees by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

A cold front was moving slowly southeast toward INl at the start
of the forecast. As the front continues to move through northeast
Minnesota, expect cirrus to overspread the terminals through the
evening. Not anticipating any showers or thunderstorms with 
fropa as atmosphere is very dry. VFR cigs are forecast. Did leave
in a mention of BR at HIB and HYR overnight and until just past 
sunrise before eroding. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  84  57  80 /   0  20   0   0 
INL  56  83  56  86 /   0   0   0   0 
BRD  58  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0 
HYR  55  86  55  83 /   0  10   0   0 
ASX  56  81  56  80 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...GSF