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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Duluth, MN (DLH)

                            
000
FXUS63 KDLH 230653
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
153 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Concern for the short term is cloud cover this morning.

Current surface analysis indicates area of stratus moving SE
through NE MN via NW cold air advection. Also, there are clouds 
across portion of NW WI moving south off Lake Superior. The clouds
will affect the region this morning before drier air pushes into
the forecast area this afternoon clearing out the clouds in NE MN.
There could be some lingering clouds across NW WI especially
across Ashland and Iron counties from Lake Superior. High
temperatures today will be in the mid 30s to the middle 40s.

The area of high pressure will be over the region tonight and
Wednesday morning keeping the skies mostly clear. Temperatures
will remain below normal tonight with lows in the lower to middle
20s. As the center of the ridge moves east, southerly flow will
develop and push warmer air into the region with highs in the 40s.
The clouds will be on the increase in the western portion of the
forecast area as a warm front approaches the area.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

A cloudy and wet period of weather Thursday through the weekend with 
occasional periods of light rain (sometimes mixed with snow) and 
temperatures near normal. On Monday sunshine should return, but it 
will not last long as the pattern will support additional chances 
for rain/snow towards mid-week next week. Highs in the low to mid 
40s each day with lows in the 30s, remaining above freezing most 
nights. Total precipitation over the next seven days will be around 
a quarter to half inch in most locations, but some locally higher 
amounts are possible. Around an inch or two of snowfall is possible 
in some spots over the weekend, but generally little snowfall is 
expected to stick for most locations across the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

A mix of low VFR and MVFR ceilings were occurring over parts of 
northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin as of late evening. These 
ceilings will continue overnight then gradually diminish from west 
to east through the day Tuesday as high pressure builds in. A few 
light showers will remain possible into the early morning hours over 
far northern Minnesota and along portions of the South Shore.

The winds have diminished this evening and they are expected to be 
at or less than 10 knots on Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  40  27  44 /  10   0   0   0 
INL  28  38  24  46 /  30   0   0   0 
BRD  28  43  26  48 /   0   0   0   0 
HYR  31  42  25  46 /   0   0   0   0 
ASX  34  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for 
     LSZ140>143-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM