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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Dodge City, KS (DDC)

FXUS63 KDDC 212335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
635 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Thunderstorms are likely this evening in vicinity of a frontal 
boundary as it stalls out across western Kansas. Steepening low/mid 
level lapse rates and increased moisture with surface dewpoints well 
up into the 60s(F) ahead of the advancing boundary will provide 
ample instability to support thunderstorm development as capping 
erodes. Meanwhile, dynamics aloft will be relatively favorable
with an increasingly difluent southwest flow and a strong +100kt 
jet core lifting northeast across the high plains with a right 
entrance region setting up generally across western Kansas, 
virtually straddling the stalled frontal boundary. Combined with 
SBCAPE values upward of 2500 J/kg and more than sufficient deep 
layer shear, this will increase severe potential with large hail 
and damaging winds the primary threat. Isolated tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

Expect lows down into the 50s(F) in west central and portions of 
southwest Kansas tonight behind the stalled boundary to the 60s(F)
in south central Kansas. Cooler air will surge into western Kansas
early Sunday morning behind a secondary and much stronger cold 
front. As a result, look for highs only up into the 70s(F) for 
much of the area Sunday afternoon with a few lower 80s(F) possible
near and along the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Tranquil conditions are likely Monday as a drier air mass remains 
settled across the Western High Plains while ridging aloft transitions
eastward through the region. Thunderstorm chances return early 
Tuesday as medium range models show an upper level trough of low 
pressure digging southeast across the Desert Southwest, setting up
an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the high 
plains of western Kansas. With a prevailing southerly flow pulling
moisture back into the area increasing instability, thunderstorms
will be possible Tuesday morning as a series of H5 vort maxima 
eject out of the trough axis in the Desert Southwest and into the 
South Plains. Initial development is expected in the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma with potential storms then possibly spreading 
into southwest Kansas. Thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday
as an upper level shortwave trough pushes east across the Upper 
Midwest, sending an attendant cold front southward into 
western/central Kansas. However, an expected weaker flow aloft 
along with uncertainty as it pertains to timing and placement of 
the frontal boundary will play factors into where the best chance 
for storms will be.

Prevailing low level southerlies and ridging aloft transitioning 
will result in warm up Monday with highs back up into the 80s(F). 
Similar temperatures are expected through the middle part of the 
week with yet another frontal boundary projected to push through 
western Kansas by Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and spread northeast across
portions of southwest and central Kansas through late this
evening, likely affecting KHYS and possibly KGCK and KDDC. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight. Low 
level stratus is then expected to develop across portions of 
central Kansas early Sunday morning resulting in possible MVFR 
cigs in the vicinity of KHYS and KDDC generally after 10Z. 
Southerly winds around 15 to 30kt will persist across central and 
much of southwest Kansas overnight as a surface low remains 
anchored in southeast Colorado. A strong cold front will then push
through western Kansas early Sunday morning turning winds 
northerly 15 to 25kt.


DDC  58  78  54  85 /  60  30   0   0 
GCK  55  78  52  86 /  50  10   0  10 
EHA  55  78  53  86 /  20   0   0  10 
LBL  58  78  53  86 /  30  10   0  10 
HYS  57  77  53  83 /  80  40   0   0 
P28  65  80  57  83 /  50  50   0   0 




LONG TERM...JJohnson