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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Dodge City, KS (DDC)

FXUS63 KDDC 212259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...Updated aviation discussion...

Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

An effective frontal boundary has moved into Oklahoma, with 
cooler and more humid conditions over western Kansas this 
afternoon. Surface high pressure will build into western Kansas 
through Tuesday as the upper level pattern amplifies. By mid to 
late week, upper level ridging will nudge eastward across the high
plains. An upper level trough moving across the northern plains 
on the northern periphery of the ridge could push a cold front 
into western Kansas by the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Moist upslope flow may lead to the development of low clouds
late tonight; but daytime heating will lead to partly to mostly 
sunny skies by mid morning Monday. Cooler weather will persist
in the wake of the front, with a gradual warming trend by Thursday 
as upper level ridging develops to our west, along with a surface
trough on the high plains. Temperatures should fall into the mid 
to upper 50s by Tuesday morning as winds become light under 
surface high pressure. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Warmer temperatures can be expected by Thursday with highs in the
lower to mid 90s. With the upper level ridge situated to our west,
and the southern edge of the westerlies over northern Kansas into
Nebraska, some thunderstorm activity can't be ruled out by late 
week into the weekend. But the overall pattern looks warm and 
mainly dry for the weekend and into early next week. Any cooling 
over the weekend may be short lived as upper level ridging 
develops on the high plains once again by early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

High pressure continues to build into the central High Plains
overnight. This will keep north to northeast winds up into the
10-15 knot range with occasional gustiness. MVFR to possibly IFR 
cigs are also expected to develop overnight. Any low cigs should
scatter out by mid morning on Monday as daytime heating increases.


DDC  62  84  57  82 /  10  10   0   0 
GCK  60  83  54  82 /  10   0   0   0 
EHA  62  83  57  83 /  30  10  10   0 
LBL  62  84  56  84 /  20  10   0   0 
HYS  60  82  55  82 /  10   0   0   0 
P28  68  84  60  84 /  30  10   0   0