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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Dodge City, KS (DDC)

                            
000
FXUS63 KDDC 222257
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

A front over the southern plains will make an attempt to surge
back north into Kansas as a strong upper level disturbance
embedded in a long wave trough ejects northeastward across the 
central high plains on Thursday. Widespread thunderstorms are
expected to develop north of the warm front late tonight and then
persist all day Thursday. Given the very moist upslope flow,
low stratus will develop so that locations north of the front will
be completely socked in with low clouds and maybe even areas of
fog all day. Given the rich moisture above the frontal surface,
elevated severe storms with large hail are a possibility. South 
of the front, if storms can stay discrete and not form a line or 
otherwise destructively interfere with each other, tornadoes would
be possible. Exact temperatures will depend on the location of 
the front on Thursday. Expect highs in the 70s to near 80 south 
of the front at Medicine Lodge, and 50s in Scott City. In between
these locations there is great uncertainty. The front may not 
move north of Dodge City during daylight hours so that it could be
in the upper 50s in the afternoon and then jump into the 60s 
after dark. Normally with shortwave troughs ejecting northeastward
with a negative tilt, the warm sector gets thrusted northward. It
will be interesting to see if this happens. It is very difficult 
to dislodge a cool wedge of air on the high plains that is being 
reinforced by upslope flow and 100% cloud cover. Current thinking 
is that the front stays southeast of Dodge City through daylight 
hours. This would keep any tornado threat along and southeast of 
a line from Larned to Greensburg to Ashland. That said, another 
thing to watch for is the mean storm motion with respect to the 
front. If storms form on the front and then immediately move 
northeastward into the cool air north of the front, then tornadoes
would be unlikely. If the front pivots and becomes more northeast
to southwest oriented, then the storms could remain along the 
boundary and have a better chance of being tornadic. 

Given the saturated grounds, opted to issue a flash food watch for
areas south and east of Dodge City for Thursday and Thursday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

A weak front will sag southward in the wake of the aforementioned
upper disturbance but then quickly weaken on Friday. The reason 
for the weak and short lived frontal push is the fact that the 
shortwave trough is ejecting north-northeastward instead of 
charging eastward. This will lead to airmass destabilization and 
chances for storms in south central Kansas in the afternoon. Even 
though the front will be reforming farther north, there may be 
still some weak convergence along the dissolving front. These
storms could be severe with large hail or more.

The pattern will remain active through Tuesday as another
shortwave slowly approaches. There will be chances for severe 
storms somewhere across the plains each day, but the details are 
not possible to nail down. Mesoscale boundaries will likely play
an increasing role in storm mode as often happens as we get 
deeper into the warm season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

As a warm front boundary lifts into Kansas from Oklahoma during
the overnight we will see clouds quickly increase, cloud ceilings
quickly decrease, and the possibility of VCTS for all TAF sites.
Winds will also continue to stay breezy generally out of the
northeast at 15-25 kts however wind direction will be highly
dependent on how far north the warm front lifts and this could
affect LBL and DDC.

From 00-06Z VFR conditions should be the norm for all TAF
sites...after 07Z and especially from 08-10Z cloud ceilings will
quickly fall to MVFR conditions for LBL, DDC, and GCK with HYS
falling to MVFR closer to 16Z. Cloud ceilings will continue to
fall to IFR and potentially LIFR conditions for LBL, GCK, and DDC
between 10-15Z and is expected to stay in those conditions through
the rest of the TAF time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  63  55  78 /  40 100 100  30 
GCK  52  60  48  79 /  30  70  50  10 
EHA  51  66  49  81 /  30  40  30  10 
LBL  55  66  53  79 /  50  80  60  20 
HYS  52  58  54  77 /  30  60  70  20 
P28  60  77  64  79 /  30  90  50  60 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning 
for KSZ066-079>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Tatro