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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Cheyenne, WY (CYS)

                            
000
FXUS65 KCYS 250209
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
809 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Dropped today's Red Flay Warning for most of Carbon County
slightly early this evening as humidities crept up and gusty winds
diminished. Will see dry and windy conditions set in again 
tomorrow with gusts 35 to 45 mph west pf the Laramie Range, and 25
to 35 mph east. Updated the fire weather grids to maintain 
consistent windy conditions Sunday afternoon, as well as heighten 
Haines Index values with increasing concern for plume dominated 
fire growth tomorrow should any fires get started. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Dry and quiet today as yesterday's trough moves east and an upper
level ridge begins to build in behind it. Relative humidity
between 10 and 15 percent combined with winds gusting between 25
to 30 MPH is leading to critical fire weather concerns today. A
few sites have already hit criteria. This dry and windy pattern
will expand to include fire weather zones 309 and 310 tomorrow.
Winds in our western fire weather zones could gust upwards up 45 
MPH. There are two ongoing wildfires in fire weather zones 303 and
305 (Dudley Fire and Canyon Creek Fire) that are included in the 
Red Flag Warning today and tomorrow.

Other than our fire weather headlines, conditions will be quiet. A
few rain showers are possible Sunday night into Monday as an upper
level shortwave digs south into the northern CONUS. Severe weather
is not expected as overall forcing will be weak. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Once the ridge builds in conditions will remain dry and quiet
through the long-term. This will pose more concerns for potential
critical fire weather conditions through the week. The strong
ridge will stay in place keeping the weather uneventful. Long
range models are picking up on a deep trough moving in next
weekend. This system will be our next chance for rain and
thunderstorms. Until then plenty of sunshine, dry air, and Wyoming
wind.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

VFR. Wind gusts from 22 to 28 knots at Rawlins, Laramie, Cheyenne
and Chadron until 02Z. Wind gusts of 23 to 40 knots at all
locations after 15Z Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Critical fire weather conditions are at play this weekend. Gusty 
winds between 35 and 45 miles per hour are expected with relative 
humidity values between 10 and 15 percent. Rain and thunderstorm 
chances are low along with low confidence for wetting rain. 
Conditions look to remain dry through the week posing additional 
fire weather concerns. The next chance for decent precipitation will 
not be until next weekend. 

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ303>305-
     309-310.

NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AB
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CW