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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Cheyenne, WY (CYS)

                            
000
FXUS65 KCYS 192332
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
532 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Water Vapor imagery showed a large west coast storm system moving
across the great basin and intermountain west. Visible imagery 
showed scattered cumulus towers developing along the laramie range
and areas of higher terrain across the western portions of 
southeastern Wyoming. Surface obs showed a plume of low level 
moisture sitting across the panhandle and far eastern Wyoming 
with a cold front associated with the upper level impulse slowly 
moving through far western Wyoming. These observations and short 
term guidance suggest that isolated to widely scattered showers 
and thunderstorms will develop across southeastern Wyoming over 
the next few hours. HRRR forecasts continue to show a small 
cluster of mainly elevated storms in proximity to the laramie 
range with another more robust cluster across the southern 
nebraska panhandle into northern Colorado. Some high rise guidance
keeps shower activity around with the cold front as it moves 
through later this evening and overnight. 

Temperatures should see a strong response to the front with highs
on Friday 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today. More widespread 
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Friday afternoon and
evening as the main upper level storm system moves overhead. 
There will also be potential for severe weather mainly across the 
Nebraska panhandle Friday afternoon and overnight with better 
lift from the upper level system. Regional model soundings show 
moderate instability with unseasonably high moisture across the 
panhandle. Deep layer shear is supportive of organized convection
including supercells. The primary threats with any sustained 
storms would be hail and strong winds. Models do show eventual 
upscale growth across the panhandle overnight Friday. 

Friday night into Saturday morning, the focus shifts to much 
cooler temperatures and the possibility of the first freeze of the
year. Model guidance has continued to show the possibility for 
freeze and borderline hard freeze conditions in some of the 
western valleys of Carbon county. Overnight lows of 30 appear 
common and given recent over estimation trends, lows in the high 
20s for a few hours seem possible for well sheltered locations 
Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been put in place for the far
western valleys from Friday night through Saturday morning. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) 
Issued at 204 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Medium and long range guidance has continued to show an active
upper level storm track developing this weekend and continuing 
through next week. A second pacific trough behind this weekends 
system is progged to dive across the CONUS with differing 
solutions on the GFS and the EURO. The GFS shunts a shortwave 
trough the central and southern CONUS early next week while the
EURO cutoff the same system over the 4 corners. While radically 
different, both models keep the northern stream of the mid level 
jet across Wyoming with the potential for some episodes of high 
winds and an occasional shower. The majority of the forecast 
appears to be dry but will likely remain active with weather 
hazards mainly strong winds as more pacific troughs develop later
next week and into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will likely
remain above average through the period before another stronger 
cold front develops and moves through late next weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions will prevail for the KCYS, KLAR, and KRWL sites
this evening. Gusty south to southwest winds 20-30 knots will 
continue until 20/04Z for Wyoming terminals. A stray shower is 
possible near KCYS this evening, but left VCSH out of TAFs due to 
low probability. High clouds will be present over the Nebraska 
Panhandle in the late evening and overnight for terminals. 
Included VCSH for KBFF near 20/05Z for the low chance of a shower 
making its way into the Panhandle before dissipating. Expect 
Nebraska Panhandle terminals at KAIA, KBFF, KCDR, KSNY to 
experience breezy winds in the late evening from approximately 
20/02Z until 20/06Z before decreasing. The focus will then
transition into Friday as an upper level system slowly approaches
the areas presenting gusty winds into the forecast once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Gusty winds and low humidity have developed across far western 
portions of zone 304. A cold front will move through later today 
and early Friday bringing cooler conditions and better humidity 
recoveries. This should limit the fire weather threat to the next 
few hours before rain chances and colder temperatures arrive this 
weekend.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for 
     WYZ111-113-115.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ304.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...BW
FIRE WEATHER...AL