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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 181453
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1053 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will push down from NY this afternoon. High 
pressure will then take over for two days. Some light snow or 
rain is possible Wednesday Night and Thursday. A slight cool 
down is expected for week's end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Little to nothing falling across the south and clouds are
decreasing almost everywhere. Kept mention of --SHRA over the
srn tier as the weak low to the south may slow a bit as it
reaches the coast. Exception is the clear sky over the north is
filling with some diurnal cu. The weak sfc trough moving in 
from the north could make a couple of flurries/sprinkles this 
aftn/early evening. 

Prev...
Shearing and weak upper trough with a weak surface reflection/
inverted surface trof moving along and south of the Mason Dixon
line is generating widespread clouds over most of central PA,
and just a few light radar returns and at most a few flurries
across my far south this morning. Deepest moisture is being 
pooled along the Mason Dixon line in the entrance region of a 
115kt ULJ, which will support just some vlight snow along and 
south of the PA/MD border for the next few hours before the
surface wave reaches the coastal areas. Morning clouds will
slowly decrease mid to late morning as a result, but expect
afternoon self destruct cumulus across central/western/northern
areas with a stray flurry possible far north. Otherwise it will
be dry and seasonably cold.

NW flow aloft will continue with temperatures holding around 10
degrees below normal for highs. Sfc wind will be light in the 
morning, but will pick up slightly out of the NW through the 
day over the Alleghenies as slightly cooler air aloft slides 
over the area during the day. 

Other than a stray evening flurry across the north, tonight will 
be fair and cold, with broken lake clouds decreasing over the 
north and mostly clear skies to the south/southeast. Clouds may
linger longer over the NE mtns. Mins will range from the mid to
upper teens north to around 30F south/southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure building eastward from the Ohio Valley
will keep things fair and cool on Tuesday with a nice amount of 
sunshine expected. Highs will moderate slightly with maxes
reaching the mid to upper 30s north and the mid 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move across Tuesday night. Long- 
wave trough aloft will aid keeping temperatures about 5 degrees 
below normal for this time of year and help generate some 
afternoon clouds across the north. Surface high center moves off
the coast Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of next system along 
with March sun will warm temps to near normal. Next system will 
move in Wednesday night with good chance for rain and 
snow...snow mountains and colder locations north. Thursday a 
short-wave rotates around upr level trough bringing a chance for
scattered light showers. Drier and warmer conditions heading 
into and through the weekend. Near normal highs and lows on 
Friday and Saturday with about a 10 degree jump on Sunday 
climbing into the 60s many areas through central PA and across 
the south. Warmer trend looks to last into the 8-14 day period.

Spring officially begins at 5:58PM on Wednesday 3/20.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An isold --SHRA could occur over MDT/LNS as the weak system well
to our south drags a little. Weak sfc trough moving in from NY 
will make clouds and perhaps an isold --SHSN/RA vcty BFD late 
this aftn/early evening. 

Otherwise, high pressure building in from the Grt Lks should 
ensure widespread VFR conditions for most of the area. VFR
should last into Wed. 

.Outlook...

Tue-Wed...No sig wx.

Wed PM-Thu...--RA/--SN and reductions to IFR possible, esp wrn
mtns.

Fri...AM low cigs/snow showers possible W Mtns.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Watson/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru