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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 200219
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1019 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain very warm and humid through mid week and a weak 
trough of low pressure will keep the chance of mainly afternoon 
and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Cooler 
and much less humid air will arrive for Thursday through 
Saturday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A calm wind and mostly clear skies will likely result in late 
night valley fog, mainly over northern Pa, where soil moisture 
is the highest. 02Z observations indicate dewpoint depressions
are already approaching zero over northern Pa, so expect fog to
begin forming by midnight. 

Latest model blend supports lows tonight ranging from the mid
50s in the coolest valleys of the north, to around 70F across
the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Approaching mid/upper level short wave trough and increasing 
south to swrly LLVL flow along and to the south of a weak warm 
frontal boundary will help ramp up convective parameters Tuesday
afternoon, with scattered afternoon showers and storms expected
in all parts of the state. Weak 0-6km shear will not be
conducive for organized severe weather. However, it will be
unstable enough across the southern half of the state to support
vigorous updrafts and the potential of isolated damaging wind
gusts/large hail.

Mixing down ensemble mean 850mb temps of around 17C should support
high temps Tuesday ranging from the low 80s over the northern 
mountains, to around 90F in the Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A slightly higher probability for TSRA Wednesday afternoon and 
evening as a more vigorous upper shortwave and associated sfc 
CFROPA pushes southeast through the CWA late Wednesday and Wed 
night.

Upper low crossing eastern Canada will anchor a trough that
traverses the Great Lakes/Northeast US by the end of the period.
The sensible wx forecast is tied to the movement and eventual 
position of the leading cold front which is expected to cross 
the area on Thursday and stall out to the south of the Mason 
Dixon line. This scenario should eventually allow cooler and 
drier (less humid) air to spread into the region behind the 
front and bring a nice stretch of weather from late week through
the weekend. 

The cold front will be a focus for thunderstorms as it pushes 
southeast on Thursday. A severe storm risk upgrade is possible
across a portion of the area (most likely southeast PA). A 
trailing wave of low pressure riding along the stalled frontal 
boundary could bring another round of rain to the southern tier 
of central PA on Friday. This outcome is supported by the latest
operational ECMWF but considered a low probability outcome at 
this time given lack of support from other guidance. 

Still expect Thursday to be the transition day with frontal
passage fueling storms followed by push of cooler and drier 
air Thursday night. The FROPA will also spell some temporary 
relief from the recent hot and muggy conditions. High pressure 
and lower humidity should translate into pleasant and warm days
and comfortably cool nights with valley fog Fri-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect widespread VFR to continue through the first half of the
overnight period. A mainly clear night with high humidity 
should lead to fog and low clouds causing restrictions at most 
airports during the few hours either side of sunrise Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop and become most numerous
Tuesday afternoon and evening, causing local brief restrictions.


.Outlook...

Wed...Rounds of PM showers/thunderstorms. Late night and early 
morning fog/low clouds.

Thu...Trending VFR northwest; chance of t-storms southeast. 
FROPA Thursday night.

Fri-Sat...No Sig Wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Harrisburg tied the previous record high of 97 degrees 
yesterday. 


Record highs for August 19:

Harrisburg 97 in 1966
Williamsport 94 in 1899
Altoona 91 in 1983
Bradford 86 in 1978
State College 96 in 1899

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte/Ceru
CLIMATE...