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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251125
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
725 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push through the region this morning, 
followed by clearing skies, lower humidity, and a moderately 
gusty west-northwest breeze up to 20 mph at times. 

Mainly clear skies and light wind will follow for tonight as 
a ridge of high pressure slides across the Commonwealth. 

A return southwesterly low-level flow on Wednesday will help to 
gradually increase temperatures and humidity levels, with a few
showers possible late at night or early Thursday as another 
weak cold frontal boundary approaches from the Lower Great Lakes
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc Warm front with a weak lee side trough led to a few hour
period of showers overnight and early this morning, with a
couple of isolated TSRA accompanied by brief heavy rain across 
the southern part of the state.

An ill-defined cold front will push east across the Commonwealth
this morning, followed by clearing skies and a gradual drop in
sfc dewpoints to more comfortable levels in the 50s (Northern 
and Western Mtns, and lower 60s (Susq Valley) by later this
afternoon. 

Rather deep vertical mixing up to 6-7 kft agl, enhanced by the
subsiding, thermally indirect right exit region of a 70 kt upper
jet max will lead to a moderately gusty west-northwest wind of
up to 20 kts at times during the late morning and afternoon
hours. 

High temps ranging from the mid-upper 70s across the Northern 
and Western Mtns to the mid 80s in the Susq Valley will be
near...to a few deg F above normal for early Summer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure extending northeast from the Central
Appalachians will bring clear skies and light wind tonight with
much more comfortable temps and dewpoints. 

Min temps will vary from the mid 50s across the Mtns of northern
and western PA, to the L60s in the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
After the approach/passage of an ill-defined cool front Wed 
night/Thu morning, a summertime pattern will arrive right on 
schedule with above average temperatures and humid/muggy 
conditions to close out the month of June. A theme of drier 
weather is also expected through most of the mid-late week
period with just an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. A
digging upper trough over the Northeast US will bring the most 
likely period of t-storms to the area over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The precipitation has shifted east of the area at sunrise. A 
weak cold front is crossing the region this morning. MVFR
ceilings over the western/northern higher terrain will lift to
VFR by late morning, with clouds gradually fading away through
the day areawide. West winds around 10 mph will also gust up to
20 mph at times before diminishing this evening.

Mainly clear skies and light wind will follow for tonight as 
a ridge of high pressure slides across the Commonwealth. 

A return southwesterly low-level flow on Wednesday will again
increase humidity which will help initiate a few showers 
possible late at night or early Thursday, though VFR conditions
will prevail.

.Outlook...

Wed...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.

Thu...No sig wx.

Fri...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.

Sat...Chance of mainly PM showers and T-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...RXR