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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 260138
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
938 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and high humidity will last into Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will also be around, mainly during 
the afternoon and evening hours each day. Memorial Day will 
feature near normal temperatures and comfortably lower humidity.
A few more rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms with 
gusty wind and locally heavy rain appear likely for both Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons and evenings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Severe Watch #243 has been cancelled. Solid band of showers with
embedded thunder bisects central PA from NE to SW. Storms have
weakened below marginal levels, but still seeing some signatures
capable of 30-40 mph gusts near the NY border which we'll
monitor through late evening.

Previous timing of POPs still in good shape as the weakening
convection slides eastward. , as showers have cleared the NW 
Mountains Expect the rain to clear IPT/UNV by 03Z and the srn 
cities by 05Z or 06Z at the latest. The wind does not die off 
completely, but fog could form in the wake of the storms where 
the sky initially clears out. Much drier air will dip into nrn 
PA overnight. Mins will be still be in the 60s, though, and it 
will stay muggy for the srn half or more of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Muggy air will hang around the srn half of the state on Sunday.
Additional showers and storms will fire up - with the SWrn part
of the CWA still in a MRGL to SLGT risk for excessive rainfall.
Will nudge the PoPs a little higher for the SW, and downward a
notch for the nrn tier. Max temps will be a little cooler than
Sat in the N and W, but warmer by a deg or two in the SE thanks
to the downslope flow. MRGL-SLGT risk for severe still exists in
roughly the same area as the ERO, but a little farther to the
south where the best instability will be.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
110 pm update... On the large-scale, a western CONUS
upper trough/eastern CONUS upper ridge pattern still looks to 
prevail for most of next week, before the ridge flattens a bit 
towards next weekend, as an eastern Canadian trough perhaps 
builds southward. In general, this means continued warm
temperatures through at least mid-week, perhaps cooling towards
the end of the period. 

As for the daily sensible weather, as a cold front settles south
of the Commonwealth and high pressure noses down from Canada, we
should dry out Sunday night, with a nice Memorial Day likely on
tap. On Tuesday, a warm front should approach from the south and
west, with this boundary probably stalling out somewhere near or
over the Commonwealth Wednesday-Thursday. This means that 
unsettled weather comes back into the forecast, with daily 
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front may sweep 
much of the moisture south and east of the region for the end 
of the week, with cooler and drier weather possible at that time
frame.

Daily highs will mostly range from the mid 70s-mid 80s through
at least Thursday, with some cooling anticipated thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 00Z TAF package, adjusted the timing of storms some
more.

First band of showers and storms move east of the mountains
and is now mainly gone now.

Another line of storms formed east of the southwest Ontario line
of storms. This is the line I adjusted for in the TAFS.

The cold front sags southward overnight, but will be close to
the southern part of the Keystone state on Sunday, thus used
VCSH across the south.

Less chance of showers and storms on Memorial day.

Some chance of more showers and storms again after Monday.

.Outlook...

Mon-Tues AM...VFR.

Tues PM-Thurs...Mainly VFR, although spotty showers/storms are
expected each aftn/evening.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Martin