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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 220033
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
833 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place until a cold front
provides a brief cool down early next week. After high pressure
returns for Tuesday and Wednesday, another cold front will move
our way for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Convection over across the CWA with the loss of heating. 
Look for a quiet night with valley fog forming closer to
sunrise. With much higher dewpoints then 24 hours ago,
radiational cooling will be limited and lows will be a solid 
10-15 deg warmer than last night, averaging in the low to mid 
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will be a mostly sunny and warm early Autumn day with 
temps well into the 70s across the northern and western
mountains, and the mid to upper 80s in the SE zones. With 
dewpoints well into the 60s in most areas, it will feel more 
humid. 

With the increase in humidity, a stray afternoon shower or 
thunderstorms will be possible. Relatively mild mid level 
temperatures and continued warm advection should act to keep a
cap on most activity, so I used a blend of MOS POPs which 
yielded very small chances during max heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models are coming into agreement on the tracking of a cold 
front that will move through the area Monday. This system will 
likely be accompanied by a round of generally light showers. It 
should move through the region quickly with a return to fair and
slightly warmer than seasonable weather Tue/Wed. High pressure 
should build southeast from the Grt Lks mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will supply
predominantly VFR conditions and light wind across central Pa
tonight and Sunday. However, there will be patchy dense valley
fog late tonight until around 14Z. The locations likely to be
impacted will be over the western half of the state from KUNV
and KAOO westward. KJST will likely remain VFR due to its
ridgetop location. Further east, latest NAMNest and SREF
probability charts indicate the air mass will likely remain too
dry for fog. 

A stray afternoon shower could pop up Sunday along a weak warm 
front, running from around KIPT south to KHGR. Otherwise, models
support a high confidence of widespread VFR conditions and light
winds. 

.Outlook...
Mon...Sct showers/isold t-storms as a cold front crosses the 
area.

Tue...Early MVFR cigs possible north/west. VFR PM.

Wed...VFR/no sig wx.

THU...Sct showers/isold t-storms with a cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Autumn officially arrives at 3:50 a.m. EDT, on Monday, Sept. 23.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
CLIMATE...