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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 161034
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
634 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Light precipitation through Saturday morning with gusty winds
continuing into Saturday evening. Colder then normal
temperatures will continue through midweek with no significant 
precipitation expected.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar continues to show rain/snow mix through the northern half
of central PA with light accumulations. The heaviest 
accumulations will be in the northwest mountains. The light
returns through State College are wet snowflakes. Expect this 
to continue through the the first half of the morning before the
system lifts to the northeast. 
Corresponding with this system is gusty winds that continue to
be around 10 to 15 mph sustained from the northwest. Expect wind
gusts upwards of 30 mph as well. There remains strong winds
aloft and given the unstable air and lack of inversion, these
winds will continue to mix to the surface through the daytime.

Given the cold air advection with 850mb temps in the -8C range,
maximum temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. So a back to reality switch given the warm temperatures
from the last few days. 

Gusty west northwest winds will start to slowly taper off 
during the second half of the day as the pressure gradient 
begins to relax.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
*Cooler-than-average temperatures recovering for the start of
 spring

Dry air through the mid levels and a western North America 
ridge will promote a mean trough over the eastern part of the 
continent. After a brief taste of spring in the last 2 days the
persistent cold air advection will keep temperatures below
normal. Another weak short wave moving through the region will
drop down through southwest PA late Sunday. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*A dry precipitation pattern overall with limited opportunities
 Sunday night-AM Monday and around midweek.

Guidance trends suggest temps recover around the first day of 
spring (5:58PM on 3/20) with readings getting back to average 
levels for this time of year by the end of the period. 

A weak clipper type system may bring a light coating of snow to
the southern tier of central PA Sunday night into Monday 
morning. The parent shortwave embedded in the overall upper
level trough offers lower predictability/confidence given its 
small scale, so this fcst could easily change (again) in the 
next few cycles. Models diverge around midweek with frontal 
system and therefore split the difference between wet GFS/dry 
ECMWF.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are in place between the weak cold
front over far SERN PA and the secondary cold front approaching
from the Gr Lakes. 

The new cold front from the Gr Lakes will bring showers and 
lowering conditions into the NW and Laurel Highlands later this 
afternoon into the overnight. Most of the remainder of the 
flying area will see cooler and mainly dry conditions that will 
continue for the weekend into next week

.Outlook...

Sat...Breezy. Restrictions with scattered rain/snow showers NW.
No sig wx elsewhere.

Sun-Wed...No sig weather.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Ceru
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Ceru
SHORT TERM...La Corte/Ceru
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...DeVoir