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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 182327
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
727 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry spell will continue this week with comfortable afternoons
and cool nights with light winds and low humidity. Temperatures
will trend above average for the last official days of summer 
this weekend. A period of rain is most likely early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Dewpoints tanked today as expected. While they will recover a 
bit tonight, the morning lows will be very close to the current 
dewpoints. Valley fog is expected again overnight/Thurs AM as 
the air/water temp difference gets large across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Sunny, pleasant, and rain-free weather continues through the
end of the week with low humidity. The only sensible wx change 
will be a warming trend starting on Friday with forecast max 
temp departures climbing +5-10 degrees above average. Low temps
should bottom out in the 40s Thursday night and also trend 
upward into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A building upper level ridge with above normal heights will 
bring a resurgence of summertime heat across the area through 
the upcoming weekend. Max temperature departures of +10-15 
degrees are expected Sat-Mon with peak readings in the mid to 
upper 80s in the SE. Max temperatures would have to reach or 
rise above 90F to challenge daily records in most locations. 

Rain likely holds off until Monday which is the first day of 
fall. However, there are no signs of frost on the horizon even
though temps will trend back toward normal. Just low chances for
light showers Tue/Wed in spots but overall a pretty dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail into the early overnight hours. 
Patchy fog or low clouds is expected to form in the valleys as
temperatures drop overnight. Anticipating an IFR low cloud deck
to form near KIPT late tonight, similar to what happened there 
last night. MVFR vsbys are possible at a handful of other 
central PA TAF sites overnight.

Fog and low clouds should quickly burn off Thursday morning. 
Quiet weather and VFR conds are expected into the upcoming 
weekend, outside of brief reductions in patchy fog or low 
clouds during the late-night/morning hours.

The next chance for precip could approach by next Monday, in 
the form of scattered showers/storms.

.Outlook...

Wed-Sun...AM valley fog/low clouds possible, otherwise 
generally VFR.

Mon...PM showers/storms possible, otherwise generally VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Autumn officially arrives at 3:50 a.m. EDT, on Monday, Sept. 23.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...RXR/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Steinbugl