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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 221824
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
224 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and colder conditions with rain showers, snow showers, and
locally heavier squalls will follow behind a strong coastal
storm that brought heavy rain to the lower Susquehanna Valley. 
Improving weather is expected over the weekend with moderating 
temperatures. The next weather system is expected into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rain and high elevation snow will end across the far eastern
part of the CWA early this morning. Small streams in the 
Juniata and Lower Main Stem Susquehanna River Basins have
responded to the rainfall with several points cresting above
caution stage. 

Focus shifts to changing weather expected over the next 24
hours. A strong shortwave will combine with strong March sun and
cold air aloft to produce gusty winds and convective rain/snow 
showers. Locally heavier squalls (possibly containing small hail
or graupel) are possible and could be accompanied by rumbles of
thunder. Issued wind advisory for part of south central PA 
where fcst soundings and hires guidance indicates potential for 
max winds gusts around 50 mph. The most likely timing for max
gusts would be later this afternoon into early tonight as 
subsidence region moves over the area in the wake of the 
vigorous shortwave. Frequent snow showers will likely bring a 
light snow accumulation and areas of slippery travel to the 
higher elevations of the western Alleghenies through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Snow showers should end early Saturday morning followed by 
gradually subsiding winds into Saturday night. High pressure 
will provide dry wx over the weekend with temperatures trending
warmer on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Model guidance is in decent agreement with the next system 
returning light precipitation to the area late Sunday night into
Monday. There is growing confidence in a period of light 
precipitation on Monday. Dry weather is fcst from Monday night 
through late week. Temperatures should trend colder early next 
week before rebounding above average toward the end of the 
month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent cold front will dive southeast across the region late 
today, accompanied by snow squalls across the high terrain of 
northern and western Pa and rain showers with possible thunder 
across the southeast half of the state. A few dips to ifr/lifr 
vsbys appear likely at KBFD/KJST and possible at KUNV/KAOO this 
afternoon. Farther east, temperatures should be too warm for 
snow, so the threat of significant vsby reductions are low. 
Behind the front, strong/gusty northwest winds will be the main 
issue late today and this evening. Bufkit soundings support 
gusts to around 40kts during this time.

.Outlook...

Sat...Still gusty northwest winds.

Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Rain/snow/low cigs possible, mainly N and W Mtns. 

Tue and Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of cold front will
persist through Saturday. Relative humidities are forecast to 
drop to 30% or less Saturday and Sunday afternoon. However, 
in collaboration with fire weather partners, recent significant
rainfall and snow/rain showers today will keep fine fuel 
moisture above 10% through the weekend. Thus no flags are 
expected at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
We are monitoring a few Lower Main Stem tribs with Harper 
Tavern/Swatara Creek just at minor FS. Expect falling stages by
later today.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ024>028-033>036-
056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Gartner/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Gartner
SHORT TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner
FIRE WEATHER...Gartner
HYDROLOGY...Ross/Gartner