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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 181823
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
223 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in overnight and last into Wednesday. 
Some light snow or rain is possible Wednesday Night and 
Thursday. A slight cool down is expected for week's end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunshine self-destructed and bkn strato cu cover the entire
area this aftn. Some enhancement/cu of moderate development have
formed over the wrn third of the state and along the NY border.
Interesting how the cu development is not as good in the shadow
of the ice still left on LE. Some flurries/sprinkles still
expected as the weak trough off to our north drops into the nrn
mtns. By the time it gets to I-80, the sun will be low/down and
any deeper convection will be all but gone. However, the cloud 
cover over the SW will linger and drop into MD during the 
evening. Much of the night will be clear under the influence of
high pressure. Wind will go calm in most places. Temps should 
drop nicely, esp at the usual cold spots. Could be close to 20F
by morning at THV and SEG, and m-uTeens in the nrn mtns. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure building eastward from the Ohio Valley
will keep things fair and cool on Tuesday with a nice amount of 
sunshine expected. A bit more cloud cover will be found over the
NE, but a few cu is expected over much of the area. Highs will 
moderate slightly in the W/N with maxes reaching the mid to 
upper 30s north, but be nearly the same as Monday with mid 40s 
S/E.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move across Tuesday night. Long- 
wave trough aloft will aid keeping temperatures about 5 degrees 
below normal for this time of year and help generate some 
afternoon clouds across the north. Surface high center moves off
the coast Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of next system along 
with March sun will warm temps to near normal. Next system will 
move in Wednesday night with good chance for rain and 
snow...snow mountains and colder locations north. Thursday a 
short-wave rotates around upr level trough bringing a chance for
scattered light showers. Drier and warmer conditions heading 
into and through the weekend. Near normal highs and lows on 
Friday and Saturday with about a 10 degree jump on Sunday 
climbing into the 60s many areas through central PA and across 
the south. Warmer trend looks to last into the 8-14 day period.

Spring officially begins at 5:58PM on Wednesday 3/20.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Virga seen out the window falling from relatively thick cu and
this could be similar across the rest of the airspace. Expect a
little bumpiness under the high-based cu as the 
snowflakes/sprinkles evaporate and cooler air is generated. No 
need for LLWS mentions, though. A few more almost-showers are 
expected in BFD late this aftn until just before sunset as a
weak sfc trough swings through. 

Otherwise, high pressure building in from the Grt Lks and loss
of sunlight should squash most of the diurnal cu this evening.
VFR and generally light winds should last into Wed under the 
high pressure.

.Outlook...

Tue-Wed...No sig wx.

Wed PM-Thu...--RA/--SN and reductions to IFR possible, esp wrn
mtns.

Fri...AM low cigs/snow showers possible W Mtns. Gusty NW wind.

Sat...Gusty NW wind. 

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Watson/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo