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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 191748
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region
late this week and during the weekend. A cold front will likely push
across the area Monday, followed by high pressure building in
from the Great Lakes by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level shear axis embedded and cresting the sharp upper 
ridge over the Ern GLAKS is maintaining an area of scattered mid
to high clouds extending from the eastern lakes southward 
through central PA this afternoon. Earlier stratocumulus which 
formed overnight in the easterly flow around the sprawling sfc 
anticyclone has mixed out over the Laurel Highlands, and it's
mostly sunny to sunny throughout central PA.

High pressure and low-pwat air mass will remain over the region
tonight, resulting in another mostly clear and cool night with
patchy late night valley fog. Expect min temps mainly in the
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
No changes to the going forecast on Friday as the strong surface
high slips south of the region. A return flow of warmer
southward flow will develop, and along with abundant sunshine,
temperatures should jump up to the mid to upper 70s north to the
lower 80s south/southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A building upper level ridge and surface high off of the east
coast will bring a resurgence of summertime warmth across the 
area this weekend. Max temperature departures of +10-15 degrees
are expected Sat-Sun with peak readings in the mid to upper 80s
in the SE. Max temperatures would have to reach or rise above 
90F to challenge daily records in most locations.

The bulk of med range guidance tracks a cold front southeast
across the area Monday, likely accompanied by a round of
showers. A return to fair and seasonable weather appears likely
Tue/Wed, as high pressure builds southeast from the Grt Lks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered high clouds and a light southeast flow prevail for 
the rest of today. Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow
valley fog to redevelop tonight into early Friday morning.


.Outlook...

Wed-Sun...AM valley fog/possible, otherwise VFR. Isold MVFR/shra
possible Saturday as a warm front lifts northward.

Mon-Tue...Chance of showers early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Autumn officially arrives at 3:50 a.m. EDT, on Monday, Sept. 23.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/RXR
AVIATION...DeVoir/Steinbugl
CLIMATE...