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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 182126
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
526 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in overnight and last into Wednesday. 
Some light snow or rain is possible Wednesday Night and 
Thursday. A slight cool down is expected for week's end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Sunshine self-destructed and bkn strato cu cover the entire
area this aftn. Some enhancement/cu of moderate development have
formed over the wrn third of the state and along the NY border.
Interesting how the cu development is not as good in the shadow
of the ice still left on LE. Some flurries/sprinkles still
expected as the weak trough off to our north drops into the nrn
mtns. By the time it gets to I-80, the sun will be low/down and
any deeper convection will be all but gone. However, the cloud 
cover over the SW will linger and drop into MD during the 
evening. Much of the night will be clear under the influence of
high pressure. Wind will go calm in most places. Temps should 
drop nicely, esp at the usual cold spots. Could be close to 20F
by morning at THV and SEG, and m-uTeens in the nrn mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure building eastward from the Ohio Valley
will keep things fair and cool on Tuesday with a nice amount of 
sunshine expected. A bit more cloud cover will be found over the
NE, but a few cu is expected over much of the area. Highs will 
moderate slightly in the W/N with maxes reaching the mid to 
upper 30s north, but be nearly the same as Monday with mid 40s 
S/E.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move across PA Tuesday night and  
off the coast Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of next system 
along with March sun will warm temps to near normal. Next system
will move in Wednesday night bringing a good chance for rain
along with some snow mainly across the north and on the highest
ridges. 

Thursday a potent shortwave drops across the eastern Great
Lakes, bringing a renewed chance for scattered light showers. 
Some model guidance hinting at a coastal low developing off the 
Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts as it lifts north late 
Thursday into Friday, with impacts to central PA likely
contained to a period of breezy conditions. 

A secondary cold front will cross the area Friday which will 
bring a reinforcing shot of drier and colder air. The high
pressure builds for the weekend with warmer days and cool
nights. Temps will be near normal Friday and Saturday with 
about a 10 degree jump on Sunday climbing into the 60s many 
areas through central PA and across the south. Warmer trend 
looks to last into the 8-14 day period.

Spring officially begins at 5:58PM on Wednesday 3/20.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect diurnal cumulus/stratocu to clear between 00Z-03Z, as 
the boundary layer cools/stabilizes. High pressure should bring 
widespread VFR conditions and light winds through Tuesday. 

.Outlook...

Tue-Wed...No sig wx.

Wed PM-Thu...--RA/--SN and reductions to IFR possible, esp wrn
mtns.

Fri...AM low cigs/snow showers possible W Mtns. Gusty NW wind.

Sat...Gusty NW wind.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Fitzgerald