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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 141916
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
316 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through today. The cold front will clear
out the low clouds and showers, and usher in many days of dry 
weather with temperatures at or above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Latest radar at 19Z has showers and thunderstorms moving 
through the east central PA. The strongest storms are south of 
the Mason Dixon with only weak storms moving through east 
central PA north of Harrisburg. Expect this line to continue to
move to the southeast as the day continues. Some showers and 
storms could spark as the system reaches the southeast. 
Otherwise, latest satellite puts the front on a line from NE PA 
down across SW PA. This front will continue to move through the 
region this afternoon and evening. Expect skies to clear this 
evening. The recent rainfall, with the clearing skies and light 
winds will create a great environment for fog formation. So 
expect patchy fog to form overnight and continue into Sunday
morning. 
 Mins will stay in the 60s SE but get close to 50F in the nrn 
mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
After the fog burns away (slowly) on Sunday, it should be a 
much brighter, milder day. We could even top normal maxes by 5 
degs in many places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing 
little more than low chance PoPs. It will be a warm day ahead 
of the front, with high temperatures approaching 10 degrees 
above normal across southern PA.

After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down
from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of 
the week. This should keep central PA generally dry through the
week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front, 
temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Skies continue to clear through the NW and will continue to the
SE. 
Periods of IFR at UNV, JST and AOO are possible over the next 
few hours. That threat will shift to MDT and LNS this afternoon 
between 19Z to 21Z. 
 Skies will improve this evening between 22Z to 03Z. High 
pressure will build in behind the front tonight. Clearing skies,
light wind and wet ground in spots will likely promote the 
development of valley fog. That will bring periods of IFR in
cigs and vsbys overnight tonight, mainly at BFD, JST and IPT. 
 Skies will improve by mid Sunday morning.  

.Outlook...

Sun...AM valley fog possible.

Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible northern Pa.

Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Ceru