Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 152100
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
400 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across Central Pennsylvania and the
Susquehanna Valley this afternoon. High pressure will follow 
and last into the weekend. A weak system could make a light 
coating of snow over the northern half of the area as the 
weekend ends. A slightly stronger storm will approach for the 
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Moderately strong sfc cold front will push east through the
by early evening hours. Scattered light to briefly moderate 
rain showers were falling along and just in advance of the 
front.

Temps are quite balmy in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front, and
even touching 60F during the past hour across Lancaster County
where an area of nearly cloud-free skies prevailed. 

Temps will fall gradually by about 3-4 deg F/hour in the wake 
of the cfront this afternoon and evening. 

POPs in the Slight Chc to Chc range still look good to coverage
the rather sparse showers we see on regional Dual Pol ATTM.

Expect the CFROPA about 18-19Z at KAOO, KUNV and KIPT and 
around 21Z at KMDT. As the air gets colder, a snowflake or two 
may mix in over the nrn mtns as the precip moves off to the 
east. BFD will see temps falling through the 30s this 
afternoon. 

Gusts could increase into the 20s and even around 30 over 
the Laurels behind the front later today, especially on the 
ridge tops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure noses down from the upper lakes and central
Canada. Expect the dry air to keep anything but a few flurries
from falling tonight. Low pressure passing pretty far to our
south (Carolinas) will likely spread some clouds to the MD
border, but precip will remain a hundred miles to our south. 
The ridge axis doesn't quite get as far east as PA on Saturday.
Thus, the north wind will keep it cooler and dry. Can't rule out
a flurry out of the clouds which will come off the lower lakes.
But, will leave the forecast dry for now. Mins tonight will be
very nearly normal. Maxes in the u20s to near 40F on Sat will be
just a couple of degs below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Light snow accumulation expected Sunday afternoon-night 
*More significant winter storm potential Wednesday-Thursday

The models and ensembles show a persistent weather pattern this
period featuring a western US trough, strong southeast ridge 
and subsequent storm track from the southern Plains/lower MS 
Valley northeast across or along the spine of Appalachians. 

The first system will arrive on Sunday with snow spreading 
across the area during the afternoon into the evening. This
system is somewhat disorganized and won't have as much moisture
to work with as the second system for midweek. Initial snow
accumulations are between a coating and 2 inches with higher
amounts fcst north of I-80. Light snow may linger overnight
Sunday with slippery travel into early Monday morning. 

With abundant moisture available from the GOMEX, the midweek
storm system has the potential to bring heavier wintry
precipitation to central PA. The details are still unclear but
the potential exists for significant and disruptive snow and ice
accumulations. Wintry precipitation should end by Thursday
night. 

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will push east of the airspace by early evening 
hours. MVFR cigs will continue into tonight at KBFD and KJST, 
while other locations in the Central Mtns and Middle Susq valley
stay under mainly bkn-ovc VFR cigs with brief MVFR in -SHRA.

High pressure building in behind the front should bring VFR
conditions to most of the region late today and this evening.
However, moisture flowing off of Lake Erie could spread MVFR
cigs into the northwest mountains this evening. 

Outlook...

Sat...No sig wx expected.

Sun...PM light snow possible. 

Mon...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Tue...No sig wx expected.

Wed...Reduced conds in wintry mix possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Gartner
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Gartner