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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

FXUS61 KCTP 160221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1021 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

A weak ridge of high pressure will build in tonight. A weak 
area of low pressure is expected to track across northern 
Pennsylvania Tuesday. A slow-moving cold front will likely push 
into the region late Friday or Saturday.


The wind gusts have died right on cue, and the wind should
continue to get lighter through the night. Sfc ridge builds in
tonight and Tues AM, but the center will be well off to our
south and some gradient wind will remain. Temps were falling 
slowly at first tonight due to mixing with the wind still going,
but they should follow the fcst surve for the rest of the 


Model consensus tracks a weak wave of low pressure along a warm
front southeast from the Grt Lks into northern Pa on Tuesday.
This will spread light rain across the northern half of the 
forecast area by afternoon. An examination of model soundings 
indicates it will be marginally cold enough for a rain/snow mix 
across the northern mountains, as precipitation arrives during 
the late morning/early afternoon hours. Surface temperatures 
should be too warm for any snow accumulation. 


*Late-week storm may renew flooding and severe weather risk

Quasi-stationary frontal boundary will pivot north and east 
through midweek, setting up a temperature battleground over 
central PA. Expect temperatures to trend warmer through late 
week and peak on Friday. A chance for light rain will persist 
near and particularly on cool-side of the wavy boundary with 
blended POPs signaling the best odds over the northeast 1/3 of 
the CWA.

The rebound in temperatures will help to fuel another potential
round of heavy downpours Friday-Friday night and may renew the
threat of severe weather in a pattern somewhat similar to what
occurred Sunday night. This system will need to be monitored in
the coming days. 

Temperatures will trend cooler into the weekend with lingering 
showers likely fading into Easter Sunday. Deterministic models
differ significantly on precip pattern early next week but agree
on moderating temps near to above average.


Gusty westerly winds will continue for the next few hours. wind
gusts will remain 20-40 mph with the highest readings in the
southeast. These winds will slowly weaken as the night
 Gusts will slowly slacken over the next few hours and the
sunsets and the inversion forms. Expect winds to drop to around
10 mph or lower between 06Z -09Z. Though JST could remain mixed
overnight.VFR conds are expected to continue as any clouds will
remain VFR. 

VFR will remain through the most of Tuesday though there will be
another chance of showers late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. These showers will approach from the northwest. 


Tue...Trending VFR; winds subsiding. 
Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR, although an outside chance of a SHRA. 
Fri...Widespread restrictions likely in SHRA and TSRA.


Swatara Creek is only now cresting at Hershey, but is falling
upstream. Expect both Harper Tavern and Hershey to go below
flood stage overnight. 




NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Tyburski
LONG TERM...Steinbugl