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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

FXUS61 KCTP 230838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
438 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Improving weather conditions are expected over the weekend. 
Gusty winds will subside into tonight and temperatures will 
rebound nicely on Sunday. Aside from light precipitation 
potential on Monday, a prolonged period of dry weather appears 
likely to last until next weekend. 


Gusty winds on the backside of deep storm over the Bay of Fundy
will subside into tonight as the storm moves north into the 
Gulf of St. Lawrence. Models are bullish in quickly dissipating
shallow stratocu clouds across central PA early this morning. 
Lake Huron band will likely keep clouds around longer over the 
Laurel Highlands. Despite clouds breaking for late-March sun, 
max temperatures will be -5 to -15 degrees below average and 
only reach the mid 30s-40s. Factor in the wind, and it will feel
like mid 20s-30s. Mainly clear tonight with min temps much 
closer to climo values.


A nice rebound in temperatures on Sunday with highs +10-15
degrees warmer than Saturday. Clouds will increase into Sunday 
night with the next frontal system possibly bringing some light
precipitation to the area by Monday morning. Model QPF trends
shifted light amounts to the south, focusing over the southern 
1/2 to 1/3 of central PA Monday during the day. This would favor
a lower risk for rain/snow on the northern edge of pcpn in 
northern PA, where temperatures will be marginally cold enough
to support mix. Precip shifts to the south with dry wx likely
Monday night. 


We are pretty confident in a prolonged period of dry wx this
period, as large area of high pressure dominates the regional
pattern. We are also bullish on a warming trend toward above
average temperatures starting around midweek, but will need to 
watch for potential cool-air damming. NBM does a decent job in
mitigating timing differences with pcpn associated with frontal
system around the end of the month. 


Satellite imagery at 06Z is showing mvfr stratocu over the high
terrain of central Pa. The pocket of very cold air aloft, which
is supporting the cloud cover, will exit the state later this 
morning, resulting in clearing skies. Model soundings indicate 
this clearing will take place at most locations between 09Z-12Z.

An intense low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes will
maintain gusty northwest winds across central Pa through today.
Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts in the 25-30kt range 
through early this evening. High pressure will build into the 
region this evening, causing winds to diminish. 


Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...AM rain/low cigs possible, mainly N and W Mtns. 

Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.


Gusty northwest winds 20+ mph and minimum RHs below 30% are 
expected this afternoon. Low RH is also forecast on Sunday, but
with lighter winds. Fine fuel moisture (per coordination with 
fire wx partners) will remain above 10% through the weekend, 
and therefore no fire wx headlines are expected at this time. 




NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
FIRE WEATHER...Gartner/Steinbugl