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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 150033
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
833 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move off the Mid Atlantic coast overnight.
High pressure will build in and usher in several days of dry 
weather with temperatures at or above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

A very weak front almost perfectly bisects the CWA from NE-SW. 
Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s from State College 
eastward. Despite most of my SERN zones still being in the warm 
air, it's not terribly unstable and the radar is mostly quiet 
but for a few small showers over York and Lancaster Counties.

Drier air will slowly work eastward overnight. With skies
expected to become clear to scattered in most areas by the wee 
hours of Sunday, and after a day that saw many areas having 
some rain, valley fog is likely to form late at night.

Mins will stay in the 60s SE but get close to 50F over the
northern mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
After the fog burns away (slowly) on Sunday, it should be a 
much brighter, milder day. We could even top normal maxes by 5 
degs in many places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing 
little more than low chance PoPs. It will be a warm day ahead 
of the front, with high temperatures approaching 10 degrees 
above normal across southern PA.

After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down
from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of 
the week. This should keep central PA generally dry through the
week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front, 
temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR Cigs linger through the Susq Valley and west to KAOO and an
KUNV at 23z but the trend continues for clearing from the west.
VFR Conditions over the west and northwest areas with some high
cirrus moving over. Winds are light and temperatures are
dropping. That along with recent rain should favor the formation
of fog after midnight with LIFR visibilities and CIGs by morning
through much of the area. Fog is expected to burn off by 14z
with mostly clear skies expected Sunday and light winds.

.Outlook...

Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible northern Pa.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Watson